AA Alcoa Corp.

Aluminum NYSE

$28.47 -1.46 (-5.13%)
update: 2025-07-01
Prev Close $29.93
Market Cap $6.35B
Day Range $27.72 - $30.00
Open $29.88
P/E Ratio 6.56
52W Change -33.26%
24H Volume 9.4M
Dividend Yield 1.63%
EPS 3.58769
DAY WEEK PRICE LEVEL

Trading Signals

Overall Signal

SELL

Strong sellish signal based on multiple indicators.

Confidence: 15.2%
Updated: 2025-07-01

Key Price Levels

Support Levels

  • Strong Support $25.13
  • Medium Support $26.24
  • Weak Support $27.36

Resistance Levels

  • Weak Resistance $29.58
  • Medium Resistance $30.7
  • Strong Resistance $31.81

Stop Loss Suggestions

  • Conservative $30.3
  • Moderate $30.14
  • Aggressive $31.25

Analyst Ratings

Current Rating

Strong Buy 2
Buy 7
Hold 4
Sell 0
Strong Sell 1

Chart Analyst Ratings Loading

Last Month

Strong Buy 2
Buy 7
Hold 4
Sell 0
Strong Sell 1

2 Months Ago

Strong Buy 1
Buy 9
Hold 3
Sell 0
Strong Sell 1

3 Months Ago

Strong Buy 2
Buy 8
Hold 4
Sell 0
Strong Sell 0

Signal Indicator

Indicator Signal Strength Timeframe
Moving Averages NEUTRAL
Short & Medium Term
Oscillators BUY
Short Term
Trend Indicators BUY
Short & Medium Term
Volume Indicators SELL
Short & Medium Term
Support/Resistance NEUTRAL
Short Term
Data Source: Consolidated ratings from various investment bank analysts. Ratings may change over time.

Stock Price Prediction Price Target Probabilities

Quarterly Outlook

AA Quarterly Outlook
2025-07-01

Bullish Scenario

Probability 27.24%
from current 22.2%
Prediction $35

Strong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (21.15) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (44.31) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-2.02) is above Signal line (-2.41) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 3.16, indicating the average weekly price range.

AA Quarterly Outlook
2025-07-01

Base Scenario

Probability 44.19%
from current -1.59%
Prediction $28

Price is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (21.15) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (44.31) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-2.02) is above Signal line (-2.41) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 3.16, indicating the average weekly price range.

AA Quarterly Outlook
2025-07-01

Bearish Scenario

Probability 28.57%
from current -22.2%
Prediction $22

Increased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (21.15) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (44.31) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-2.02) is above Signal line (-2.41) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 3.16, indicating the average weekly price range.

Annual Outlook

AA Annual Outlook
2025-07-01

Bullish Scenario

Probability 27.24%
from current 44.4%
Prediction $41

Long-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (21.15) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (44.31) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-2.02) is above Signal line (-2.41) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 3.16, indicating the average weekly price range.

AA Annual Outlook
2025-07-01

Base Scenario

Probability 44.19%
from current -3.17%
Prediction $28

Steady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (21.15) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (44.31) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-2.02) is above Signal line (-2.41) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 3.16, indicating the average weekly price range.

AA Annual Outlook
2025-07-01

Bearish Scenario

Probability 28.57%
from current -44.4%
Prediction $16

Long-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (21.15) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (44.31) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-2.02) is above Signal line (-2.41) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 3.16, indicating the average weekly price range.

Technical Analysis

Trend Identification

EMA

Exponential Moving Average

NEUTRAL
EMA(20) 28.28
EMA(55) 26.91
EMA(100) 29.76

Current price (28.47) is above both Short MA (28.28) and Long MA (26.91). This indicates strong bullish momentum. Short MA (28.28) is above Long MA (26.91), a bullish crossover ('Golden Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates an upward trend. MAs (28.28, 26.91, 29.76) show mixed alignment, suggesting market indecision or range-bound activity. Consider long positions. Use the MAs as dynamic support levels.

MACD

Moving Average Convergence Divergence

BUY
MACD Line(12) 0.33
Signal Line(26) 0.31
Histogram(9) 0.01

MACD line is above the Signal line (bullish crossover). This indicates upward momentum. Histogram (0.0100) is positive and expanding, confirming bullish momentum. Both MACD and Signal lines are above the zero line, reinforcing bullish momentum (bullish territory). This is a strong buy signal. Consider long positions.

ADX

Average Directional Index

NEUTRAL
ADX(14) 18.8
+DI 25.88
-DI 17.58

ADX (18.80) indicates a weak or non-existent trend (ranging market). +DI (25.88) is above -DI (17.58), suggesting a bullish directional bias. Avoid trend-following strategies. Consider range-bound or reversal strategies, or wait for a clearer trend to develop.

Momentum Measurement

RSI

Relative Strength Index

BUY
Current RSI(14) 51.24
Oversold Neutral Overbought

RSI (51.24) is in the bullish territory, but not yet overbought. This indicates upward momentum. Monitor for continuation or signs of weakness.

OBV

On-Balance Volume

Rising
OBV Trend Upward
OBV vs Price Confirming

OBV (13176400.00) is falling, indicating selling pressure and distribution. Price is falling and OBV is falling. This is bearish confirmation, indicating selling pressure supports the price decrease. Consider holding short positions or initiating new ones. Volume is supporting the trend.

Stochastic

Stochastic Oscillator

SELL
%K Line 46.43
%D Line 49.39

Stochastics (%K: 46.43, %D: 49.39) are in the neutral zone (between 20 and 80). A bearish crossover (%K below %D) is observed. This indicates downward momentum. Be cautious if it's already in the oversold region.

CCI

Commodity Channel Index

BUY
CCI(20) 6.74

CCI (6.74) is between 0 and +100. This indicates bullish momentum is present, but not yet extreme. A move above 0 from negative territory (bullish zero-line cross) can indicate a potential buy signal.

Volatility Measurement

ATR

Average True Range

1.17
ATR(14) 1.17
ATR % of Price ...%

Current ATR is 1.1700. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility Bands

BUY
Upper Band 29.8
Middle Band (MA20) 28.28
Lower Band 26.76
Band Width 11%

Current price (28.47) is within the Bollinger Bands (26.76 - 29.80). This suggests the price is trading within its typical volatility range. Price is above the Middle Band (28.28), indicating short-term bullish bias. Bollinger Bands are wide. This indicates high volatility. Prices tend to revert to the mean after extended periods of high volatility.

Risk Management & Potential Reversals

SAR

Parabolic Stop and Reverse

SELL
Current SAR 30.3
Distance from Price 6.43%

SAR points above price indicate bearish trend. Current SAR at 30.30 is 6.43% from price. Consider SAR as a potential take-profit level or to confirm a downtrend.

RSI

Reversal Perspective

No Divergence
RSI Divergence None
Overbought/Oversold Neither

Current RSI level is in neutral territory. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.

Stochastic

Neutral

Approaching Overbought
Stochastic Position 46.4
Crossover Status No Crossover

Stochastic is in neutral territory (46.4). No clear overbought/oversold signal.

Bollinger Bands

Reversal Perspective

High Volatility
Band Position Mid-Range
Band Squeeze None

Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating high volatility and potential strong trend continuation.Price is in the middle of bands with normal bandwidth. No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.

Holder List (Top 20)

Holder Name Holder Type Shares Pct. Held Date Reported
Vanguard Group Inc INSTITUTIONAL 25654318 9.91% 2025-03-31
Blackrock Inc. INSTITUTIONAL 24064494 9.3% 2025-03-31
Eagle Capital Management LLC INSTITUTIONAL 16582949 6.41% 2025-03-31
State Street Corporation INSTITUTIONAL 9778226 3.78% 2025-03-31
iShares Trust-iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF MUTUALFUND 8364969 3.23% 2025-04-30
VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund MUTUALFUND 8169329 3.16% 2025-03-31
NORGES BANK INSTITUTIONAL 6862711 2.65% 2024-12-31
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP INSTITUTIONAL 6803086 2.63% 2025-03-31
VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund MUTUALFUND 6460227 2.5% 2025-03-31
Morgan Stanley INSTITUTIONAL 4902966 1.89% 2025-03-31
Geode Capital Management, LLC INSTITUTIONAL 4426756 1.71% 2025-03-31
VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund MUTUALFUND 4186419 1.62% 2025-03-31
VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund MUTUALFUND 3976132 1.54% 2025-03-31
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO INSTITUTIONAL 3510075 1.36% 2025-03-31
Sourcerock Group, LLC INSTITUTIONAL 3101487 1.2% 2025-03-31
SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF TRUST MUTUALFUND 2040128 0.79% 2025-04-30
SPDR SERIES TRUST-SPDR(R) S&P(R) Metals & Mining ETF MUTUALFUND 2007217 0.78% 2025-04-30
GLOBAL X FUNDS-Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF MUTUALFUND 1549793 0.6% 2025-04-30
iShares Trust-iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value ETF MUTUALFUND 1452878 0.56% 2025-04-30
Fidelity Concord Street Trust-Fidelity Extended Market Index Fund MUTUALFUND 1428669 0.55% 2025-04-30