ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
REIT - Mortgage NYSE
Trading Signals (ARI)
Overall Signal
SELL
Strong sellish signal based on multiple indicators.
Key Price Levels
Support Levels
- Strong Support $9.05
- Medium Support $9.24
- Weak Support $9.43
Resistance Levels
- Weak Resistance $9.81
- Medium Resistance $10
- Strong Resistance $10.19
Stop Loss Suggestions
- Conservative $10.07
- Moderate $9.91
- Aggressive $10.1
Analyst Ratings
Current Rating
Signal Indicator
| Indicator | Signal | Strength | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moving Averages | NEUTRAL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Oscillators | SELL |
|
Short Term |
| Trend Indicators | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Volume Indicators | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Support/Resistance | NEUTRAL |
|
Short Term |
Stock Price Prediction Price Target Probabilities (ARI)
Quarterly Outlook :
2025-08-22
Bullish Scenario
from current 7.48%
Strong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (7.81) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (51.49) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (0.15) is below Signal line (0.19) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.36, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-22
Base Scenario
from current -0.94%
Price is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (7.81) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (51.49) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (0.15) is below Signal line (0.19) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.36, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-22
Bearish Scenario
from current -7.48%
Increased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (7.81) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (51.49) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (0.15) is below Signal line (0.19) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.36, indicating the average weekly price range.
Annual Outlook
2025-08-22
Bullish Scenario
from current 14.97%
Long-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (7.81) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (51.49) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (0.15) is below Signal line (0.19) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.36, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-22
Base Scenario
from current -1.87%
Steady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (7.81) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (51.49) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (0.15) is below Signal line (0.19) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.36, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-22
Bearish Scenario
from current -14.97%
Long-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (7.81) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (51.49) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (0.15) is below Signal line (0.19) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.36, indicating the average weekly price range.
Technical Analysis (ARI)
Trend Identification
EMA
Exponential Moving Average
Current price (9.62) is below both Short MA (9.83) and Long MA (9.81). This indicates strong bearish momentum. Short MA (9.83) is above Long MA (9.81), a bullish crossover ('Golden Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates an upward trend. MAs (9.83, 9.81, 9.58) show mixed alignment, suggesting market indecision or range-bound activity.
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
MACD line is below the Signal line (bearish crossover). This indicates downward momentum. Histogram (-0.0300) is negative and expanding, confirming bearish momentum. MACD and Signal lines are near the zero line, indicating weak momentum or market consolidation.
ADX
Average Directional Index
ADX (10.22) indicates a weak or non-existent trend (ranging market). +DI (17.82) is above -DI (17.19), suggesting a bullish directional bias. Avoid trend-following strategies. Consider range-bound or reversal strategies, or wait for a clearer trend to develop.
Momentum Measurement
RSI (2025-08-22)
Relative Strength Index
RSI (40.92) is in the bearish territory, but not yet oversold. This indicates downward momentum. Monitor for continuation or signs of strength.
OBV (2025-08-22)
On-Balance Volume
OBV (-7757534.00) is falling, indicating selling pressure and distribution. Price is falling and OBV is falling. This is bearish confirmation, indicating selling pressure supports the price decrease. Consider holding short positions or initiating new ones. Volume is supporting the trend.
Stochastic (2025-08-22)
Stochastic Oscillator
Stochastics (%K: 18.39, %D: 28.04) are in the neutral zone (between 20 and 80). A bearish crossover (%K below %D) is observed. This indicates downward momentum. Be cautious if it's already in the oversold region.
CCI (2025-08-22)
Commodity Channel Index
CCI (-156.68) is below -100. This suggests a strong downward momentum and an oversold condition. Consider buying or looking for long entries cautiously. Confirm with price action; if price is making lower lows, momentum is strong. Look for rallies to enter short.
Volatility Measurement
ATR (2025-08-22)
Average True Range
Current ATR is 0.1800. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.
Bollinger Bands (2025-08-22)
Volatility Bands
Current price (9.62) is within the Bollinger Bands (9.62 - 10.05). This suggests the price is trading within its typical volatility range. Price is below the Middle Band (9.83), indicating short-term bearish bias.
Risk Management & Potential Reversals (ARI)
SAR (2025-08-22)
Parabolic Stop and Reverse
SAR points above price indicate bearish trend. Current SAR at 10.07 is 4.68% from price. Consider SAR as a potential take-profit level or to confirm a downtrend.
Stochastic (2025-08-22)
Oversold
Stochastic is in oversold territory (18.4). Monitor for potential bullish crossover or movement above 20, which could signal a reversal. Current crossover status: Bearish.
RSI (2025-08-22)
Reversal Perspective
Current RSI level is in neutral territory. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.
Bollinger Bands (2025-08-22)
Reversal Perspective
Bands show normal bandwidth. Price is in the lower half of the bands, suggesting a bearish bias.No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.
Holder List Top 20 (ARI)
| Holder Name | Holder Type | Shares | Pct. Held | Date Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kingstone Capital Partners Texas, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 25411467 | 18.29% | 2025-06-30 |
| Blackrock Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 21947324 | 15.8% | 2025-03-31 |
| Vanguard Group Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 15239126 | 10.97% | 2025-03-31 |
| iShares Trust-iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | MUTUALFUND | 7760879 | 5.59% | 2025-04-30 |
| State Street Corporation | INSTITUTIONAL | 5185754 | 3.73% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 4456691 | 3.21% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 3461368 | 2.49% | 2025-03-31 |
| iShares Trust-iShares Russell 2000 ETF | MUTUALFUND | 3387669 | 2.44% | 2025-04-30 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 3182468 | 2.29% | 2025-03-31 |
| Nomura Holdings Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 2794924 | 2.01% | 2025-03-31 |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 2326569 | 1.67% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 2245836 | 1.62% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 1928727 | 1.39% | 2025-03-31 |
| iShares Trust-iShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF | MUTUALFUND | 1867859 | 1.34% | 2025-04-30 |
| Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings Ltd. | INSTITUTIONAL | 1855116 | 1.34% | 2025-03-31 |
| Morgan Stanley | INSTITUTIONAL | 1835349 | 1.32% | 2025-03-31 |
| Northern Trust Corporation | INSTITUTIONAL | 1690971 | 1.22% | 2025-03-31 |
| Fidelity Salem Street Trust-Fidelity Small Cap Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 1415763 | 1.02% | 2025-02-28 |
| Balyasny Asset Management LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 1306175 | 0.94% | 2025-03-31 |
| iShares Trust-iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF | MUTUALFUND | 1300400 | 0.94% | 2025-04-30 |