AVAL Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA
Banks - Regional NYSE
Trading Signals
Overall Signal
SELL
Strong sellish signal based on multiple indicators.
Key Price Levels
Support Levels
- Strong Support $2.47
- Medium Support $2.58
- Weak Support $2.69
Resistance Levels
- Weak Resistance $2.91
- Medium Resistance $3.02
- Strong Resistance $3.13
Stop Loss Suggestions
- Conservative $2.89
- Moderate $2.97
- Aggressive $3.08
Signal Breakdown
| Indicator | Signal | Strength | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moving Averages | NEUTRAL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Oscillators | SELL |
|
Short Term |
| Trend Indicators | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Volume Indicators | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Support/Resistance | NEUTRAL |
|
Short Term |
Stock Price Prediction
Price Target Probabilities
Quarterly Outlook
Bullish Scenario
38.6% ProbabilityStrong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (29.75) indicates a strong trend. +DI > -DI suggests strong bullish directional bias. RSI (57.66) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (0.14) is below Signal line (0.15) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.23, indicating the average weekly price range.
Base Scenario
44.19% ProbabilityPrice is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (29.75) indicates a strong trend. +DI > -DI suggests strong bullish directional bias. RSI (57.66) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (0.14) is below Signal line (0.15) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.23, indicating the average weekly price range.
Bearish Scenario
17.21% ProbabilityIncreased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (29.75) indicates a strong trend. +DI > -DI suggests strong bullish directional bias. RSI (57.66) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (0.14) is below Signal line (0.15) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.23, indicating the average weekly price range.
Annual Outlook
Bullish Scenario
38.6% ProbabilityLong-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (29.75) indicates a strong trend. +DI > -DI suggests strong bullish directional bias. RSI (57.66) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (0.14) is below Signal line (0.15) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.23, indicating the average weekly price range.
Base Scenario
44.19% ProbabilitySteady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (29.75) indicates a strong trend. +DI > -DI suggests strong bullish directional bias. RSI (57.66) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (0.14) is below Signal line (0.15) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.23, indicating the average weekly price range.
Bearish Scenario
17.21% ProbabilityLong-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (29.75) indicates a strong trend. +DI > -DI suggests strong bullish directional bias. RSI (57.66) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (0.14) is below Signal line (0.15) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.23, indicating the average weekly price range.
Technical Analysis
Trend Identification
EMA
Exponential Moving Average
Current price (2.80) is between Short MA (2.84) and Long MA (2.74), or near one of them. This suggests consolidation or mixed signals. Short MA (2.84) is above Long MA (2.74), a bullish crossover ('Golden Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates an upward trend. MAs (2.84, 2.74, 2.80) show mixed alignment, suggesting market indecision or range-bound activity. Market is in a choppy or sideways phase. Wait for a clearer trend to emerge before taking directional trades.
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
MACD line is below the Signal line (bearish crossover). This indicates downward momentum. Histogram (-0.0100) is negative and expanding, confirming bearish momentum. Both MACD and Signal lines are above the zero line, reinforcing bullish momentum (bullish territory). A bearish crossover above the zero line can indicate a reversal from a prior uptrend. Consider this as a potential early sell signal.
ADX
Average Directional Index
ADX (15.98) indicates a weak or non-existent trend (ranging market). +DI (17.39) is above -DI (13.65), suggesting a bullish directional bias. Avoid trend-following strategies. Consider range-bound or reversal strategies, or wait for a clearer trend to develop.
Momentum Measurement
RSI
Relative Strength Index
RSI (48.22) is in the bearish territory, but not yet oversold. This indicates downward momentum. Monitor for continuation or signs of strength.
Stochastic
Stochastic Oscillator
Stochastics (%K: 14.29, %D: 26.19) are in the neutral zone (between 20 and 80). A bearish crossover (%K below %D) is observed. This indicates downward momentum. Be cautious if it's already in the oversold region.
CCI
Commodity Channel Index
CCI (-75.00) is between -100 and 0. This indicates bearish momentum is present, but not yet extreme. A move below 0 from positive territory (bearish zero-line cross) can indicate a potential sell signal.
MACD
Momentum Perspective
MACD line is below the Signal line (bearish crossover). This indicates downward momentum. Histogram (-0.0100) is negative and expanding, confirming bearish momentum. Both MACD and Signal lines are above the zero line, reinforcing bullish momentum (bullish territory). A bearish crossover above the zero line can indicate a reversal from a prior uptrend. Consider this as a potential early sell signal.
Volatility Measurement
ATR
Average True Range
Current ATR is 0.1100. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility Bands
Current price (2.80) is within the Bollinger Bands (2.74 - 2.94). This suggests the price is trading within its typical volatility range. Price is below the Middle Band (2.84), indicating short-term bearish bias.
Volume Analysis
OBV
On-Balance Volume
OBV (1755870.00) is falling, indicating selling pressure and distribution. Price is falling and OBV is falling. This is bearish confirmation, indicating selling pressure supports the price decrease. Consider holding short positions or initiating new ones. Volume is supporting the trend.
Risk Management & Potential Reversals
SAR
Parabolic Stop and Reverse
SAR points below price indicate bullish trend. Current SAR at 2.74 is 2.14% from price. Consider SAR as a potential stop-loss level to protect gains in an uptrend.
RSI
Reversal Perspective
Current RSI level is in neutral territory. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.
Stochastic
Oversold
Stochastic is in oversold territory (14.3). Monitor for potential bullish crossover or movement above 20, which could signal a reversal. Current crossover status: Bearish.
Bollinger Bands
Reversal Perspective
Bands show normal bandwidth. Price is in the lower half of the bands, suggesting a bearish bias.No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.