AVTX Avalo Therapeutics, Inc.
Biotechnology NasdaqCM
SELL AVTX is showing a Bearish technical setup (SELL, 72% confidence) — RSI 22.7, MACD below its signal line. (Price levels withheld — underlying price history is being refreshed.)
Based on end-of-day data, updated after each U.S. market close. Not investment advice.
Trading Signals (AVTX)
How these signals performed on AVTX
Historical occurrences of each signal on this stock since January 2024, and the forward return that followed. Small samples are shown as-is—a handful of events is not a track record.
| Signal | Horizon | Times | Win rate | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI oversold recovery | 5d | 5 | 60.0% | +1.30% |
| 10d | 5 | 40.0% | -1.85% | |
| 20d | 5 | 40.0% | -4.86% | |
| RSI overbought reversal | 5d | 12 | 66.7% | +3.30% |
| 10d | 12 | 66.7% | +11.10% | |
| 20d | 12 | 75.0% | +16.18% | |
| MACD golden cross | 5d | 23 | 43.5% | -4.77% |
| 10d | 23 | 60.9% | +1.98% | |
| 20d | 23 | 56.5% | +7.85% | |
| MACD death cross | 5d | 24 | 70.8% | +4.77% |
| 10d | 24 | 58.3% | +1.63% | |
| 20d | 24 | 62.5% | +8.19% | |
| MA20/MA60 golden cross | 5d | 6 | 16.7% | -10.29% |
| 10d | 6 | 16.7% | -12.03% | |
| 20d | 6 | 33.3% | -9.77% | |
| MA20/MA60 death cross | 5d | 6 | 66.7% | +3.42% |
| 10d | 6 | 33.3% | -2.27% | |
| 20d | 5 | 40.0% | -7.68% | |
| Combined bearish setup | 5d | 4 | 100.0% | +12.08% |
| 10d | 4 | 100.0% | +3.88% | |
| 20d | 4 | 50.0% | -1.20% |
Sample period from 2024-01-01 to the latest close. Returns are gross of transaction costs and do not account for liquidity. A small number of occurrences is not statistically meaningful. Full method and market-wide results: backtest.php. Not investment advice.
Overall Signal
SELL
Strong sellish signal based on multiple indicators.
Key Price Levels
Support Levels
- Strong Support $3.86
- Medium Support $4.92
- Weak Support $5.99
Resistance Levels
- Weak Resistance $8.13
- Medium Resistance $9.2
- Strong Resistance $10.26
Stop Loss Suggestions
- Conservative $11.33
- Moderate $8.66
- Aggressive $9.73
Analyst Ratings
Current Rating
Signal Indicator
| Indicator | Signal | Strength | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moving Averages | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Oscillators | BUY |
|
Short Term |
| Trend Indicators | SELL |
|
Medium Term |
| Volume Indicators | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Support/Resistance | NEUTRAL |
|
Short Term |
Price Outlook Price Target Probabilities (AVTX)
Quarterly Outlook :
2026-11-05
Bullish Scenario
from current 52.12%
Strong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (31.21) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (22.02) is in the oversold zone, suggesting potential for price bounce. MACD line (-2.27) is below Signal line (-0.78) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 1.84, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-05
Base Scenario
from current -14.89%
Price is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (31.21) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (22.02) is in the oversold zone, suggesting potential for price bounce. MACD line (-2.27) is below Signal line (-0.78) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 1.84, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-05
Bearish Scenario
from current -65.16%
Increased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (31.21) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (22.02) is in the oversold zone, suggesting potential for price bounce. MACD line (-2.27) is below Signal line (-0.78) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 1.84, indicating the average weekly price range.
Annual Outlook
2026-11-05
Bullish Scenario
from current 104.25%
Long-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (31.21) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (22.02) is in the oversold zone, suggesting potential for price bounce. MACD line (-2.27) is below Signal line (-0.78) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 1.84, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-05
Base Scenario
from current -29.79%
Steady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (31.21) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (22.02) is in the oversold zone, suggesting potential for price bounce. MACD line (-2.27) is below Signal line (-0.78) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 1.84, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-05
Bearish Scenario
from current -130.31%
Long-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (31.21) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (22.02) is in the oversold zone, suggesting potential for price bounce. MACD line (-2.27) is below Signal line (-0.78) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 1.84, indicating the average weekly price range.
Technical Analysis (AVTX)
Trend Identification
EMA
Exponential Moving Average
Current price (7.06) is below both Short MA (9.88) and Long MA (16.02). This indicates strong bearish momentum. Short MA (9.88) is below Long MA (16.02), a bearish crossover ('Death Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates a downward trend. All MAs are in bearish order (Price < Short MA < Long MA < Very Long MA 16.21). This is a strong bearish alignment. Consider short positions. Use the MAs as dynamic resistance levels.
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
MACD line is below the Signal line (bearish crossover). This indicates downward momentum. Histogram (-0.0100) is negative and expanding, confirming bearish momentum. Both MACD and Signal lines are below the zero line, reinforcing bearish momentum (bearish territory). This is a strong sell signal. Consider short positions.
ADX
Average Directional Index
ADX (44.07) indicates a strong trend is present. -DI (42.03) is above +DI (13.61), suggesting a bearish directional bias. This combination points to a strong downward trend. Consider taking short positions, as the strong downward trend is confirmed.
Momentum Measurement
RSI (2026-11-05)
Relative Strength Index
RSI (22.70) is in the oversold zone. This suggests the asset may be due for a price bounce or a trend reversal upwards. Consider buying opportunities cautiously.
OBV (2026-11-05)
On-Balance Volume
OBV (-18002686.00) is falling, indicating selling pressure and distribution. Price is falling and OBV is falling. This is bearish confirmation, indicating selling pressure supports the price decrease. Consider holding short positions or initiating new ones. Volume is supporting the trend.
Stochastic (2026-11-05)
Stochastic Oscillator
Stochastics (%K: 50.44, %D: 58.04) are in the neutral zone (between 20 and 80). A bearish crossover (%K below %D) is observed, potentially signaling a downward trend reversal or continuation. Stronger signal if this occurs above 50.
CCI (2026-11-05)
Commodity Channel Index
CCI (-47.92) is between -100 and 0. This indicates bearish momentum is present, but not yet extreme. A move below 0 from positive territory (bearish zero-line cross) can indicate a potential sell signal.
Volatility Measurement
ATR (2026-11-05)
Average True Range
Current ATR is 1.0100. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.
Bollinger Bands (2026-11-05)
Volatility Bands
Current price (7.06) is within the Bollinger Bands (4.04 - 15.72). This suggests the price is trading within its typical volatility range. Price is below the Middle Band (9.88), indicating short-term bearish bias. Bollinger Bands are wide. This indicates high volatility. Prices tend to revert to the mean after extended periods of high volatility.
Risk Management & Potential Reversals (AVTX)
SAR (2026-11-05)
Parabolic Stop and Reverse
SAR points above price indicate bearish trend. Current SAR at 11.33 is 60.48% from price. Consider SAR as a potential take-profit level or to confirm a downtrend.
Stochastic (2026-11-05)
Neutral
Stochastic is in neutral territory (50.4). No clear overbought/oversold signal. Current crossover status: Bearish.
RSI (2026-11-05)
Reversal Perspective
Current RSI level suggests oversold conditions, indicating potential for a bullish reversal. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.
Bollinger Bands (2026-11-05)
Reversal Perspective
Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating high volatility and potential strong trend continuation.Price is in the lower half of the bands, suggesting a bearish bias.No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.
Holder List Top 20 (AVTX)
| Holder Name | Holder Type | Shares | Pct. Held | Date Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BVF Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 1036679 | 9.71% | 2025-03-31 |
| Orbimed Advisors LLC. | INSTITUTIONAL | 967000 | 9.06% | 2025-03-31 |
| RA Capital Management, L.P. | INSTITUTIONAL | 967000 | 9.06% | 2025-03-31 |
| Nantahala Capital Management, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 900000 | 8.43% | 2025-03-31 |
| Deep Track Capital, Lp | INSTITUTIONAL | 859876 | 8.06% | 2025-03-31 |
| Affinity Asset Advisors, Llc | INSTITUTIONAL | 657154 | 6.16% | 2025-03-31 |
| Perceptive Advisors Llc | INSTITUTIONAL | 520000 | 4.87% | 2025-03-31 |
| Commodore Capital Lp | INSTITUTIONAL | 483000 | 4.53% | 2025-03-31 |
| TCG Crossover Management, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 483000 | 4.53% | 2025-03-31 |
| Adviser Investments LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 312779 | 2.93% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 165801 | 1.55% | 2025-03-31 |
| Fidelity Concord Street Trust-Fidelity Extended Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 52431 | 0.49% | 2025-04-30 |
| Fidelity Concord Street Trust-Fidelity Total Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 18626 | 0.17% | 2025-04-30 |
| Fidelity Concord Street Trust-Fidelity Series Total Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 13399 | 0.13% | 2025-04-30 |
| Fidelity Concord Street Trust-Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 6204 | 0.06% | 2025-04-30 |