FMY First Trust Mortgage Income Fund
Asset Management NYSE
SELL FMY is showing a Bearish technical setup (SELL, 72% confidence) — RSI 43.7, MACD below its signal line. Key support $10.91, resistance $11.39.
Based on end-of-day data, updated after each U.S. market close. Not investment advice.
Trading Signals (FMY)
How these signals performed on FMY
Historical occurrences of each signal on this stock since January 2024, and the forward return that followed. Small samples are shown as-is—a handful of events is not a track record.
| Signal | Horizon | Times | Win rate | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MACD golden cross | 5d | 24 | 41.7% | -0.38% |
| 10d | 24 | 41.7% | -0.08% | |
| 20d | 23 | 52.2% | +0.17% | |
| MACD death cross | 5d | 25 | 52.0% | +0.13% |
| 10d | 25 | 40.0% | -0.28% | |
| 20d | 23 | 47.8% | 0.00% | |
| MA20/MA60 golden cross | 5d | 8 | 12.5% | -0.69% |
| 10d | 8 | 0.0% | -0.99% | |
| 20d | 7 | 28.6% | -1.07% | |
| MA20/MA60 death cross | 5d | 9 | 44.4% | 0.00% |
| 10d | 9 | 33.3% | -0.83% | |
| 20d | 8 | 75.0% | +1.07% |
Sample period from 2024-01-01 to the latest close. Returns are gross of transaction costs and do not account for liquidity. A small number of occurrences is not statistically meaningful. Full method and market-wide results: backtest.php. Not investment advice.
Overall Signal
SELL
Strong sellish signal based on multiple indicators.
Key Price Levels
Support Levels
- Strong Support $10.42
- Medium Support $10.66
- Weak Support $10.91
Resistance Levels
- Weak Resistance $11.39
- Medium Resistance $11.64
- Strong Resistance $11.88
Stop Loss Suggestions
- Conservative $11.34
- Moderate $11.51
- Aggressive $11.76
Signal Indicator
| Indicator | Signal | Strength | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moving Averages | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Oscillators | SELL |
|
Short Term |
| Trend Indicators | NEUTRAL |
|
Medium Term |
| Volume Indicators | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Support/Resistance | NEUTRAL |
|
Short Term |
Price Outlook Price Target Probabilities (FMY)
Quarterly Outlook :
2026-11-04
Bullish Scenario
from current 4.11%
Strong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (15.42) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (38.84) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.11) is below Signal line (-0.06) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.23, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-04
Base Scenario
from current -1.23%
Price is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (15.42) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (38.84) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.11) is below Signal line (-0.06) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.23, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-04
Bearish Scenario
from current -5.13%
Increased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (15.42) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (38.84) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.11) is below Signal line (-0.06) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.23, indicating the average weekly price range.
Annual Outlook
2026-11-04
Bullish Scenario
from current 8.21%
Long-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (15.42) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (38.84) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.11) is below Signal line (-0.06) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.23, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-04
Base Scenario
from current -2.46%
Steady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (15.42) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (38.84) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.11) is below Signal line (-0.06) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.23, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-04
Bearish Scenario
from current -10.27%
Long-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (15.42) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (38.84) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.11) is below Signal line (-0.06) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.23, indicating the average weekly price range.
Technical Analysis (FMY)
Trend Identification
EMA
Exponential Moving Average
Current price (11.15) is below both Short MA (11.31) and Long MA (11.53). This indicates strong bearish momentum. Short MA (11.31) is below Long MA (11.53), a bearish crossover ('Death Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates a downward trend. All MAs are in bearish order (Price < Short MA < Long MA < Very Long MA 11.59). This is a strong bearish alignment. Consider short positions. Use the MAs as dynamic resistance levels.
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
MACD line is crossing the Signal line. This is a crucial point, signaling a potential trend change. Monitor closely. Both MACD and Signal lines are below the zero line, reinforcing bearish momentum (bearish territory).
ADX
Average Directional Index
ADX (13.35) indicates a weak or non-existent trend (ranging market). -DI (22.86) is above +DI (21.54), suggesting a bearish directional bias. Avoid trend-following strategies. Consider range-bound or reversal strategies, or wait for a clearer trend to develop.
Momentum Measurement
RSI (2026-11-04)
Relative Strength Index
RSI (43.74) is in the bearish territory, but not yet oversold. This indicates downward momentum. Monitor for continuation or signs of strength.
OBV (2026-11-04)
On-Balance Volume
OBV (-8110.00) is falling, indicating selling pressure and distribution. Price is falling and OBV is falling. This is bearish confirmation, indicating selling pressure supports the price decrease. Consider holding short positions or initiating new ones. Volume is supporting the trend.
Stochastic (2026-11-04)
Stochastic Oscillator
Stochastics (%K: 55.12, %D: 55.38) are in the neutral zone (between 20 and 80). No clear bullish or bearish crossover signal currently. The lines are close or moving sideways.
CCI (2026-11-04)
Commodity Channel Index
CCI (-2.78) is between -100 and 0. This indicates bearish momentum is present, but not yet extreme. A move below 0 from positive territory (bearish zero-line cross) can indicate a potential sell signal.
Volatility Measurement
ATR (2026-11-04)
Average True Range
Current ATR is 0.2300. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.
Bollinger Bands (2026-11-04)
Volatility Bands
Current price (11.15) is within the Bollinger Bands (10.82 - 11.81). This suggests the price is trading within its typical volatility range. Price is below the Middle Band (11.31), indicating short-term bearish bias.
Risk Management & Potential Reversals (FMY)
SAR (2026-11-04)
Parabolic Stop and Reverse
SAR points above price indicate bearish trend. Current SAR at 11.28 is 1.17% from price. Consider SAR as a potential take-profit level or to confirm a downtrend.
Stochastic (2026-11-04)
Neutral
Stochastic is in neutral territory (55.1). No clear overbought/oversold signal.
RSI (2026-11-04)
Reversal Perspective
Current RSI level is in neutral territory. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.
Bollinger Bands (2026-11-04)
Reversal Perspective
Bands show normal bandwidth. Price is in the lower half of the bands, suggesting a bearish bias.No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.
Holder List Top 20 (FMY)
| Holder Name | Holder Type | Shares | Pct. Held | Date Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIT Investment Associates Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 2253246 | 53.48% | 2025-03-31 |
| 1607 Capital Partners, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 90952 | 2.16% | 2025-03-31 |
| Morgan Stanley | INSTITUTIONAL | 52487 | 1.25% | 2025-03-31 |
| Noble Wealth Management Pbc | INSTITUTIONAL | 40776 | 0.97% | 2025-03-31 |
| Transform Wealth, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 23100 | 0.55% | 2025-03-31 |
| Global Assets Advisory, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 22500 | 0.53% | 2025-03-31 |
| Narwhal Capital Management | INSTITUTIONAL | 20634 | 0.49% | 2025-03-31 |
| Uhlmann Price Securities, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 15777 | 0.37% | 2025-03-31 |
| Jones Financial Companies, L.L.L.P. | INSTITUTIONAL | 14113 | 0.33% | 2025-03-31 |
| Cresset Asset Management, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 14100 | 0.33% | 2025-03-31 |
| CWM, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 9780 | 0.23% | 2025-03-31 |
| SIT MUTUAL FUNDS INC-Sit Balanced Fund | MUTUALFUND | 8500 | 0.2% | 2025-03-31 |
| Rydex Variable Trust-Multi-Hedge Strategies Fund | MUTUALFUND | 284 | 0.01% | 2025-03-31 |
| Rydex Series Funds-Guggenheim Multi-Hedge Strategies Fund | MUTUALFUND | 219 | 0.01% | 2025-03-31 |