HLVX HilleVax, Inc.
Biotechnology NasdaqGS
BUY HLVX is showing a Bullish technical setup (BUY, 82% confidence) — RSI 55.7, MACD below its signal line. Key support $2.04, resistance $2.18.
Based on end-of-day data, updated after each U.S. market close. Not investment advice.
Trading Signals (HLVX)
How these signals performed on HLVX
Historical occurrences of each signal on this stock since January 2024, and the forward return that followed. Small samples are shown as-is—a handful of events is not a track record.
| Signal | Horizon | Times | Win rate | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI oversold recovery | 5d | 4 | 50.0% | +0.51% |
| 10d | 4 | 50.0% | +3.09% | |
| 20d | 4 | 50.0% | +12.54% | |
| RSI overbought reversal | 5d | 4 | 50.0% | +0.21% |
| 10d | 4 | 75.0% | +1.56% | |
| 20d | 4 | 25.0% | -2.04% | |
| MACD golden cross | 5d | 12 | 41.7% | -2.82% |
| 10d | 12 | 33.3% | -1.46% | |
| 20d | 10 | 50.0% | -1.06% | |
| MACD death cross | 5d | 12 | 41.7% | -1.08% |
| 10d | 12 | 75.0% | +0.64% | |
| 20d | 11 | 36.4% | -2.11% |
Sample period from 2024-01-01 to the latest close. Returns are gross of transaction costs and do not account for liquidity. A small number of occurrences is not statistically meaningful. Full method and market-wide results: backtest.php. Not investment advice.
Overall Signal
BUY
Strong buyish signal based on multiple indicators.
Key Price Levels
Support Levels
- Strong Support $1.91
- Medium Support $1.98
- Weak Support $2.04
Resistance Levels
- Weak Resistance $2.18
- Medium Resistance $2.24
- Strong Resistance $2.31
Stop Loss Suggestions
- Conservative $2.06
- Moderate $2.01
- Aggressive $1.94
Analyst Ratings
Current Rating
Signal Indicator
| Indicator | Signal | Strength | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moving Averages | BUY |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Oscillators | BUY |
|
Short Term |
| Trend Indicators | BUY |
|
Medium Term |
| Volume Indicators | BUY |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Support/Resistance | NEUTRAL |
|
Short Term |
Price Outlook Price Target Probabilities (HLVX)
Quarterly Outlook :
2026-11-05
Bullish Scenario
from current 15.17%
Strong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (18.52) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (49.39) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.05) is above Signal line (-0.12) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.16, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-05
Base Scenario
from current 1.9%
Price is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (18.52) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (49.39) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.05) is above Signal line (-0.12) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.16, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-05
Bearish Scenario
from current -15.17%
Increased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (18.52) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (49.39) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.05) is above Signal line (-0.12) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.16, indicating the average weekly price range.
Annual Outlook
2026-11-05
Bullish Scenario
from current 30.33%
Long-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (18.52) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (49.39) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.05) is above Signal line (-0.12) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.16, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-05
Base Scenario
from current 3.79%
Steady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (18.52) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (49.39) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.05) is above Signal line (-0.12) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.16, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-05
Bearish Scenario
from current -30.33%
Long-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (18.52) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (49.39) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.05) is above Signal line (-0.12) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.16, indicating the average weekly price range.
Technical Analysis (HLVX)
Trend Identification
EMA
Exponential Moving Average
Current price (2.11) is above both Short MA (2.10) and Long MA (1.98). This indicates strong bullish momentum. Short MA (2.10) is above Long MA (1.98), a bullish crossover ('Golden Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates an upward trend. All MAs are in bullish order (Price > Short MA > Long MA > Very Long MA 1.87). This is a strong bullish alignment. Consider long positions. Use the MAs as dynamic support levels.
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
MACD line is below the Signal line (bearish crossover). This indicates downward momentum. Histogram (-0.0100) is negative and expanding, confirming bearish momentum. Both MACD and Signal lines are above the zero line, reinforcing bullish momentum (bullish territory). A bearish crossover above the zero line can indicate a reversal from a prior uptrend. Consider this as a potential early sell signal.
ADX
Average Directional Index
ADX (26.30) indicates a strong trend is present. +DI (15.76) is above -DI (10.52), suggesting a bullish directional bias. This combination points to a strong upward trend. Consider taking long positions, as the strong upward trend is confirmed.
Momentum Measurement
RSI (2026-11-05)
Relative Strength Index
RSI (55.69) is in the bullish territory, but not yet overbought. This indicates upward momentum. Monitor for continuation or signs of weakness.
OBV (2026-11-05)
On-Balance Volume
OBV (8745166.00) is rising, indicating buying pressure and accumulation. Price is rising and OBV is rising. This is bullish confirmation, indicating buying pressure supports the price increase. Consider holding long positions or initiating new ones. Volume is supporting the trend.
Stochastic (2026-11-05)
Stochastic Oscillator
Stochastics (%K: 31.11, %D: 47.61) are in the neutral zone (between 20 and 80). A bearish crossover (%K below %D) is observed. This indicates downward momentum. Be cautious if it's already in the oversold region.
CCI (2026-11-05)
Commodity Channel Index
CCI (3.47) is between 0 and +100. This indicates bullish momentum is present, but not yet extreme. A move above 0 from negative territory (bullish zero-line cross) can indicate a potential buy signal.
Volatility Measurement
ATR (2026-11-05)
Average True Range
Current ATR is 0.0700. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.
Bollinger Bands (2026-11-05)
Volatility Bands
Current price (2.11) is within the Bollinger Bands (2.04 - 2.17). This suggests the price is trading within its typical volatility range. Price is above the Middle Band (2.10), indicating short-term bullish bias.
Risk Management & Potential Reversals (HLVX)
SAR (2026-11-05)
Parabolic Stop and Reverse
SAR points below price indicate bullish trend. Current SAR at 2.08 is 1.42% from price. Consider SAR as a potential stop-loss level to protect gains in an uptrend.
Stochastic (2026-11-05)
Neutral
Stochastic is in neutral territory (31.1). No clear overbought/oversold signal. Current crossover status: Bearish.
RSI (2026-11-05)
Reversal Perspective
Current RSI level is in neutral territory. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.
Bollinger Bands (2026-11-05)
Reversal Perspective
Bands show normal bandwidth. Price is in the middle of bands with normal bandwidth. No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.
Holder List Top 20 (HLVX)
| Holder Name | Holder Type | Shares | Pct. Held | Date Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frazier Life Sciences Management, L.P. | INSTITUTIONAL | 10617062 | 21.17% | 2025-03-31 |
| Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd. | INSTITUTIONAL | 6724000 | 13.41% | 2025-03-31 |
| Tang Capital Management, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 4920000 | 9.81% | 2025-03-31 |
| Lightspeed Management Company, L.L.C. | INSTITUTIONAL | 2303871 | 4.59% | 2025-03-31 |
| Blackrock Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 2095512 | 4.18% | 2025-03-31 |
| Franklin Resources, Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 1957619 | 3.9% | 2025-03-31 |
| Deerfield Management Company, L.P. (Series C) | INSTITUTIONAL | 1882654 | 3.75% | 2025-03-31 |
| Carlyle Group Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 1838486 | 3.67% | 2025-03-31 |
| Vanguard Group Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 1585668 | 3.16% | 2025-03-31 |
| Balyasny Asset Management LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 1002817 | 2% | 2025-03-31 |
| iShares Trust-iShares Russell 2000 ETF | MUTUALFUND | 768163 | 1.53% | 2025-04-30 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 758058 | 1.51% | 2025-03-31 |
| Franklin Strategic Series-FRANKLIN BIOTECHNOLOGY DISCOVERY FUND | MUTUALFUND | 691356 | 1.38% | 2025-01-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 387789 | 0.77% | 2025-03-31 |
| Fidelity Salem Street Trust-Fidelity Small Cap Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 294253 | 0.59% | 2025-02-28 |
| iShares Trust-iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF | MUTUALFUND | 229606 | 0.46% | 2025-04-30 |
| VANGUARD VARIABLE INSURANCE FUNDS-Small Company Growth Portfolio | MUTUALFUND | 192703 | 0.38% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD SCOTTSDALE FUNDS-Vanguard Russell 2000 Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 143978 | 0.29% | 2025-02-28 |
| Fidelity Concord Street Trust-Fidelity Extended Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 130864 | 0.26% | 2025-04-30 |
| Zacks Trust-Zacks Small-Cap Core Fund | MUTUALFUND | 92803 | 0.19% | 2025-02-28 |