MSDL Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund
NYSE
Trading Signals (MSDL)
Overall Signal
SELL
Strong sellish signal based on multiple indicators.
Key Price Levels
Support Levels
- Strong Support $17.74
- Medium Support $18.06
- Weak Support $18.38
Resistance Levels
- Weak Resistance $19.02
- Medium Resistance $19.34
- Strong Resistance $19.66
Stop Loss Suggestions
- Conservative $19.86
- Moderate $19.18
- Aggressive $19.5
Analyst Ratings
Current Rating
Signal Indicator
| Indicator | Signal | Strength | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moving Averages | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Oscillators | SELL |
|
Short Term |
| Trend Indicators | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Volume Indicators | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Support/Resistance | NEUTRAL |
|
Short Term |
Stock Price Prediction Price Target Probabilities (MSDL)
Quarterly Outlook :
2025-08-11
Bullish Scenario
from current 6.31%
Strong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (17.70) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (41.25) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.15) is below Signal line (-0.09) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.59, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-11
Base Scenario
from current -1.89%
Price is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (17.70) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (41.25) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.15) is below Signal line (-0.09) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.59, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-11
Bearish Scenario
from current -7.89%
Increased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (17.70) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (41.25) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.15) is below Signal line (-0.09) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.59, indicating the average weekly price range.
Annual Outlook
2025-08-11
Bullish Scenario
from current 12.62%
Long-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (17.70) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (41.25) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.15) is below Signal line (-0.09) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.59, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-11
Base Scenario
from current -3.79%
Steady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (17.70) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (41.25) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.15) is below Signal line (-0.09) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.59, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-11
Bearish Scenario
from current -15.78%
Long-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (17.70) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (41.25) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.15) is below Signal line (-0.09) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.59, indicating the average weekly price range.
Technical Analysis (MSDL)
Trend Identification
EMA
Exponential Moving Average
Current price (18.70) is below both Short MA (19.30) and Long MA (19.37). This indicates strong bearish momentum. Short MA (19.30) is below Long MA (19.37), a bearish crossover ('Death Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates a downward trend. All MAs are in bearish order (Price < Short MA < Long MA < Very Long MA 19.50). This is a strong bearish alignment. Consider short positions. Use the MAs as dynamic resistance levels.
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
MACD line is below the Signal line (bearish crossover). This indicates downward momentum. Histogram (-0.0800) is negative and expanding, confirming bearish momentum. MACD and Signal lines are on opposite sides of the zero line, indicating a potential zero-line crossover. This is a significant trend indicator.
ADX
Average Directional Index
ADX (17.81) indicates a weak or non-existent trend (ranging market). -DI (29.63) is above +DI (13.00), suggesting a bearish directional bias. Avoid trend-following strategies. Consider range-bound or reversal strategies, or wait for a clearer trend to develop.
Momentum Measurement
RSI (2025-08-11)
Relative Strength Index
RSI (35.15) is in the bearish territory, but not yet oversold. This indicates downward momentum. Monitor for continuation or signs of strength.
OBV (2025-08-11)
On-Balance Volume
OBV (-7271624.00) is falling, indicating selling pressure and distribution. Price is falling and OBV is falling. This is bearish confirmation, indicating selling pressure supports the price decrease. Consider holding short positions or initiating new ones. Volume is supporting the trend.
Stochastic (2025-08-11)
Stochastic Oscillator
Stochastics (%K: 7.80, %D: 8.51) are in the oversold zone (below 20). This suggests the asset may be losing downward momentum. No clear bullish or bearish crossover signal currently. The lines are close or moving sideways.
CCI (2025-08-11)
Commodity Channel Index
CCI (-180.76) is below -100. This suggests a strong downward momentum and an oversold condition. Consider buying or looking for long entries cautiously. Confirm with price action; if price is making lower lows, momentum is strong. Look for rallies to enter short.
Volatility Measurement
ATR (2025-08-11)
Average True Range
Current ATR is 0.3100. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.
Bollinger Bands (2025-08-11)
Volatility Bands
Current price (18.70) is below the Lower Bollinger Band (18.71). This often indicates an oversold condition and a potential reversal upwards, or strong downward momentum ('walking the band'). Consider buying or covering short positions, but confirm with other indicators.
Risk Management & Potential Reversals (MSDL)
SAR (2025-08-11)
Parabolic Stop and Reverse
SAR points above price indicate bearish trend. Current SAR at 19.86 is 6.20% from price. Consider SAR as a potential take-profit level or to confirm a downtrend.
Stochastic (2025-08-11)
Oversold
Stochastic is in oversold territory (7.8). Monitor for potential bullish crossover or movement above 20, which could signal a reversal.
RSI (2025-08-11)
Reversal Perspective
Current RSI level is in neutral territory. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.
Bollinger Bands (2025-08-11)
Reversal Perspective
Bands show normal bandwidth. Price is below the lower band, indicating oversold conditions or strong downward momentum. Expect a potential rebound or trend exhaustion.No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.
Holder List Top 20 (MSDL)
| Holder Name | Holder Type | Shares | Pct. Held | Date Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | INSTITUTIONAL | 15421438 | 17.54% | 2025-03-31 |
| Van Eck Associates Corporation | INSTITUTIONAL | 1878466 | 2.14% | 2025-03-31 |
| VanEck ETF Trust-VanEck BDC Income ETF | MUTUALFUND | 1726215 | 1.96% | 2025-04-30 |
| Generali Asset Management Spa Sgr | INSTITUTIONAL | 881578 | 1% | 2025-03-31 |
| UBS Group AG | INSTITUTIONAL | 624776 | 0.71% | 2025-03-31 |
| Americana Partners, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 366803 | 0.42% | 2025-03-31 |
| Franklin Resources, Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 323472 | 0.37% | 2025-03-31 |
| Wells Fargo & Company | INSTITUTIONAL | 299271 | 0.34% | 2025-03-31 |
| Putnam ETF Trust-Putnam BDC Income ETF | MUTUALFUND | 284477 | 0.32% | 2025-04-30 |
| Citadel Advisors Llc | INSTITUTIONAL | 276350 | 0.31% | 2025-03-31 |
| SFMG LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 256815 | 0.29% | 2025-03-31 |
| Cliffwater, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 242195 | 0.28% | 2025-03-31 |
| GMO TRUST-GMO U.S. Opportunistic Value Fund | MUTUALFUND | 35458 | 0.04% | 2025-02-28 |
| Invesco Exch-Trd Fd. TRT-Invesco Global Listed Private Eqy. ETF | MUTUALFUND | 30072 | 0.03% | 2025-04-30 |
| ETFis Series Trust I-Virtus Private Credit Strategy ETF | MUTUALFUND | 15295 | 0.02% | 2025-01-31 |
| GMO TRUST-GMO Implementation Fund | MUTUALFUND | 12993 | 0.01% | 2025-02-28 |
| First Trust Specialty Finance & Financial Opportunities Fund | MUTUALFUND | 10000 | 0.01% | 2025-02-28 |
| 2023 ETF Series Trust II-GMO U.S. Value ETF | MUTUALFUND | 7089 | 0.01% | 2025-03-31 |
| GMO TRUST-GMO Benchmark-Free Fund | MUTUALFUND | 5910 | 0.01% | 2025-02-28 |
| Blackstone Alternative Investment Fd.s-Blackstone Alternative Multi-St | MUTUALFUND | 100 | 0% | 2025-03-31 |