NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
Grocery Stores NYSE
Trading Signals (NGVC)
Overall Signal
SELL
Strong sellish signal based on multiple indicators.
Key Price Levels
Support Levels
- Strong Support $34.03
- Medium Support $35.32
- Weak Support $36.6
Resistance Levels
- Weak Resistance $39.18
- Medium Resistance $40.46
- Strong Resistance $41.75
Stop Loss Suggestions
- Conservative $38.92
- Moderate $39.82
- Aggressive $41.1
Signal Indicator
| Indicator | Signal | Strength | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moving Averages | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Oscillators | SELL |
|
Short Term |
| Trend Indicators | NEUTRAL |
|
Medium Term |
| Volume Indicators | BUY |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Support/Resistance | NEUTRAL |
|
Short Term |
Stock Price Prediction Price Target Probabilities (NGVC)
Quarterly Outlook :
2025-08-26
Bullish Scenario
from current 19.48%
Strong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (22.66) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (43.85) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-1.03) is below Signal line (-0.01) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.69, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-26
Base Scenario
from current -9.74%
Price is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (22.66) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (43.85) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-1.03) is below Signal line (-0.01) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.69, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-26
Bearish Scenario
from current -24.35%
Increased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (22.66) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (43.85) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-1.03) is below Signal line (-0.01) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.69, indicating the average weekly price range.
Annual Outlook
2025-08-26
Bullish Scenario
from current 38.95%
Long-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (22.66) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (43.85) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-1.03) is below Signal line (-0.01) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.69, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-26
Base Scenario
from current -19.48%
Steady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (22.66) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (43.85) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-1.03) is below Signal line (-0.01) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.69, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-26
Bearish Scenario
from current -48.69%
Long-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (22.66) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (43.85) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-1.03) is below Signal line (-0.01) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.69, indicating the average weekly price range.
Technical Analysis (NGVC)
Trend Identification
EMA
Exponential Moving Average
Current price (37.89) is below both Short MA (39.11) and Long MA (43.62). This indicates strong bearish momentum. Short MA (39.11) is below Long MA (43.62), a bearish crossover ('Death Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates a downward trend. MAs (39.11, 43.62, 43.38) show mixed alignment, suggesting market indecision or range-bound activity. Consider short positions. Use the MAs as dynamic resistance levels.
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
MACD line is crossing the Signal line. This is a crucial point, signaling a potential trend change. Monitor closely. Both MACD and Signal lines are below the zero line, reinforcing bearish momentum (bearish territory).
ADX
Average Directional Index
ADX (19.44) indicates a weak or non-existent trend (ranging market). -DI (23.26) is above +DI (14.42), suggesting a bearish directional bias. Avoid trend-following strategies. Consider range-bound or reversal strategies, or wait for a clearer trend to develop.
Momentum Measurement
RSI (2025-08-26)
Relative Strength Index
RSI (40.21) is in the bearish territory, but not yet oversold. This indicates downward momentum. Monitor for continuation or signs of strength.
OBV (2025-08-26)
On-Balance Volume
OBV (1526765.00) is rising, indicating buying pressure and accumulation. Price is rising and OBV is rising. This is bullish confirmation, indicating buying pressure supports the price increase. Consider holding long positions or initiating new ones. Volume is supporting the trend.
Stochastic (2025-08-26)
Stochastic Oscillator
Stochastics (%K: 16.67, %D: 13.71) are in the oversold zone (below 20). This suggests the asset may be losing downward momentum. A bullish crossover (%K above %D) is observed, potentially signaling an upward trend reversal or continuation. Stronger signal if this occurs below 50. This is a strong buy signal, indicating potential upside.
CCI (2025-08-26)
Commodity Channel Index
CCI (-122.10) is below -100. This suggests a strong downward momentum and an oversold condition. Consider buying or looking for long entries cautiously. Confirm with price action; if price is making lower lows, momentum is strong. Look for rallies to enter short.
Volatility Measurement
ATR (2025-08-26)
Average True Range
Current ATR is 1.5400. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.
Bollinger Bands (2025-08-26)
Volatility Bands
Current price (37.89) is within the Bollinger Bands (37.21 - 41.01). This suggests the price is trading within its typical volatility range. Price is below the Middle Band (39.11), indicating short-term bearish bias.
Risk Management & Potential Reversals (NGVC)
SAR (2025-08-26)
Parabolic Stop and Reverse
SAR points below price indicate bullish trend. Current SAR at 36.54 is 3.56% from price. Consider SAR as a potential stop-loss level to protect gains in an uptrend.
Stochastic (2025-08-26)
Oversold
Stochastic is in oversold territory (16.7). Monitor for potential bullish crossover or movement above 20, which could signal a reversal.
RSI (2025-08-26)
Reversal Perspective
Current RSI level is in neutral territory. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.
Bollinger Bands (2025-08-26)
Reversal Perspective
Bands show normal bandwidth. Price is in the lower half of the bands, suggesting a bearish bias.No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.
Holder List Top 20 (NGVC)
| Holder Name | Holder Type | Shares | Pct. Held | Date Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | INSTITUTIONAL | 977587 | 4.26% | 2025-03-31 |
| Vanguard Group Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 757084 | 3.3% | 2025-03-31 |
| Blackrock Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 721998 | 3.15% | 2025-03-31 |
| Renaissance Technologies, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 578509 | 2.52% | 2025-03-31 |
| Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 497268 | 2.17% | 2025-03-31 |
| American Century Companies Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 466810 | 2.04% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 424908 | 1.85% | 2025-03-31 |
| American Century ETF Trust-Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF | MUTUALFUND | 400016 | 1.74% | 2025-04-30 |
| Victory Capital Management Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 348413 | 1.52% | 2025-03-31 |
| Millennium Management Llc | INSTITUTIONAL | 257564 | 1.12% | 2025-03-31 |
| iShares Trust-iShares Russell 2000 ETF | MUTUALFUND | 234344 | 1.02% | 2025-04-30 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 226037 | 0.99% | 2025-03-31 |
| Wellington Management Group, LLP | INSTITUTIONAL | 223815 | 0.98% | 2025-03-31 |
| DFA INVESTMENT DIMENSIONS GROUP INC-U.S. Targeted Value Portfolio | MUTUALFUND | 207408 | 0.9% | 2025-01-31 |
| Bridge Builder Trust-Bridge Builder Small/Mid Cap Growth Fund | MUTUALFUND | 187764 | 0.82% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 168652 | 0.74% | 2025-03-31 |
| DFA INVESTMENT DIMENSIONS GROUP INC-U.S. SMALL CAP VALUE PORTFOLIO | MUTUALFUND | 145931 | 0.64% | 2025-01-31 |
| OBERWEIS FUNDS-Oberweis Micro-Cap Fund | MUTUALFUND | 117900 | 0.51% | 2025-03-31 |
| DFA INVESTMENT DIMENSIONS GROUP INC-U.S. SMALL CAP PORTFOLIO | MUTUALFUND | 114074 | 0.5% | 2025-01-31 |
| DFA INVESTMENT DIMENSIONS GROUP INC-U.S. MICRO CAP PORTFOLIO | MUTUALFUND | 114017 | 0.5% | 2025-01-31 |