NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.

Grocery Stores NYSE

$39.22 +2.09 (5.33%)
update: 2025-06-29
Prev Close $37.13
Market Cap $1.15B
Day Range $36.00 - $39.46
Open $37.36
P/E Ratio 33.38
52W Change 190.28%
24H Volume 1.09M
Dividend Yield 0.95%
EPS
DAY WEEK PRICE LEVEL

Trading Signals

Overall Signal

SELL

Strong sellish signal based on multiple indicators.

Confidence: 33.6%
Updated: 2025-06-29

Key Price Levels

Support Levels

  • Strong Support $31.8
  • Medium Support $34.27
  • Weak Support $36.75

Resistance Levels

  • Weak Resistance $41.69
  • Medium Resistance $44.17
  • Strong Resistance $46.64

Stop Loss Suggestions

  • Conservative $44.15
  • Moderate $42.93
  • Aggressive $45.41

Signal Indicator

Indicator Signal Strength Timeframe
Moving Averages SELL
Short & Medium Term
Oscillators SELL
Short Term
Trend Indicators SELL
Medium Term
Volume Indicators BUY
Short & Medium Term
Support/Resistance NEUTRAL
Short Term
Data Source: Consolidated ratings from various investment bank analysts. Ratings may change over time.

Stock Price Prediction Price Target Probabilities

Quarterly Outlook

NGVC Quarterly Outlook
2025-06-29

Bullish Scenario

Probability 34.42%
from current 28.1%
Prediction $50

Strong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (39.37) indicates a strong trend. +DI > -DI suggests strong bullish directional bias. RSI (45.02) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (1.60) is below Signal line (3.07) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 5.51, indicating the average weekly price range.

NGVC Quarterly Outlook
2025-06-29

Base Scenario

Probability 44.19%
from current 2.81%
Prediction $40

Price is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (39.37) indicates a strong trend. +DI > -DI suggests strong bullish directional bias. RSI (45.02) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (1.60) is below Signal line (3.07) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 5.51, indicating the average weekly price range.

NGVC Quarterly Outlook
2025-06-29

Bearish Scenario

Probability 21.4%
from current -28.1%
Prediction $28

Increased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (39.37) indicates a strong trend. +DI > -DI suggests strong bullish directional bias. RSI (45.02) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (1.60) is below Signal line (3.07) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 5.51, indicating the average weekly price range.

Annual Outlook

NGVC Annual Outlook
2025-06-29

Bullish Scenario

Probability 34.42%
from current 56.2%
Prediction $61

Long-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (39.37) indicates a strong trend. +DI > -DI suggests strong bullish directional bias. RSI (45.02) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (1.60) is below Signal line (3.07) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 5.51, indicating the average weekly price range.

NGVC Annual Outlook
2025-06-29

Base Scenario

Probability 44.19%
from current 5.62%
Prediction $41

Steady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (39.37) indicates a strong trend. +DI > -DI suggests strong bullish directional bias. RSI (45.02) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (1.60) is below Signal line (3.07) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 5.51, indicating the average weekly price range.

NGVC Annual Outlook
2025-06-29

Bearish Scenario

Probability 21.4%
from current -56.2%
Prediction $17

Long-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (39.37) indicates a strong trend. +DI > -DI suggests strong bullish directional bias. RSI (45.02) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (1.60) is below Signal line (3.07) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 5.51, indicating the average weekly price range.

Technical Analysis

Trend Identification

EMA

Exponential Moving Average

SELL
EMA(20) 42.86
EMA(55) 46.52
EMA(100) 44.78

Current price (39.22) is below both Short MA (42.86) and Long MA (46.52). This indicates strong bearish momentum. Short MA (42.86) is below Long MA (46.52), a bearish crossover ('Death Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates a downward trend. MAs (42.86, 46.52, 44.78) show mixed alignment, suggesting market indecision or range-bound activity. Consider short positions. Use the MAs as dynamic resistance levels.

MACD

Moving Average Convergence Divergence

SELL
MACD Line(12) -2.31
Signal Line(26) -1.95
Histogram(9) -0.37

MACD line is below the Signal line (bearish crossover). This indicates downward momentum. Histogram (-0.3700) is negative and expanding, confirming bearish momentum. Both MACD and Signal lines are below the zero line, reinforcing bearish momentum (bearish territory). This is a strong sell signal. Consider short positions.

ADX

Average Directional Index

SELL
ADX(14) 35.21
+DI 16.61
-DI 32.65

ADX (35.21) indicates a strong trend is present. -DI (32.65) is above +DI (16.61), suggesting a bearish directional bias. This combination points to a strong downward trend. Consider taking short positions, as the strong downward trend is confirmed.

Momentum Measurement

RSI

Relative Strength Index

SELL
Current RSI(14) 38.58
Oversold Neutral Overbought

RSI (38.58) is in the bearish territory, but not yet oversold. This indicates downward momentum. Monitor for continuation or signs of strength.

OBV

On-Balance Volume

Rising
OBV Trend Upward
OBV vs Price Confirming

OBV (774127.00) is rising, indicating buying pressure and accumulation. Price is rising and OBV is rising. This is bullish confirmation, indicating buying pressure supports the price increase. Consider holding long positions or initiating new ones. Volume is supporting the trend.

Stochastic

Stochastic Oscillator

NEUTRAL
%K Line 18.84
%D Line 31.08

Stochastics (%K: 18.84, %D: 31.08) are in the neutral zone (between 20 and 80). A bearish crossover (%K below %D) is observed. This indicates downward momentum. Be cautious if it's already in the oversold region.

CCI

Commodity Channel Index

BUY
CCI(20) -125.57

CCI (-125.57) is below -100. This suggests a strong downward momentum and an oversold condition. Consider buying or looking for long entries cautiously. Confirm with price action; if price is making lower lows, momentum is strong. Look for rallies to enter short.

Volatility Measurement

ATR

Average True Range

2.49
ATR(14) 2.49
ATR % of Price ...%

Current ATR is 2.4900. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility Bands

SELL
Upper Band 49.06
Middle Band (MA20) 42.86
Lower Band 36.67
Band Width 32%

Current price (39.22) is within the Bollinger Bands (36.67 - 49.06). This suggests the price is trading within its typical volatility range. Price is below the Middle Band (42.86), indicating short-term bearish bias. Bollinger Bands are wide. This indicates high volatility. Prices tend to revert to the mean after extended periods of high volatility.

Risk Management & Potential Reversals

SAR

Parabolic Stop and Reverse

SELL
Current SAR 44.15
Distance from Price 12.57%

SAR points above price indicate bearish trend. Current SAR at 44.15 is 12.57% from price. Consider SAR as a potential take-profit level or to confirm a downtrend.

RSI

Reversal Perspective

No Divergence
RSI Divergence None
Overbought/Oversold Neither

Current RSI level is in neutral territory. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.

Stochastic

Oversold

Approaching Overbought
Stochastic Position 18.8
Crossover Status Bearish

Stochastic is in oversold territory (18.8). Monitor for potential bullish crossover or movement above 20, which could signal a reversal. Current crossover status: Bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Reversal Perspective

Bearish Bias
Band Position Lower Half
Band Squeeze None

Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating high volatility and potential strong trend continuation.Price is in the lower half of the bands, suggesting a bearish bias.No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.

Holder List (Top 20)

Holder Name Holder Type Shares Pct. Held Date Reported
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP INSTITUTIONAL 977587 4.26% 2025-03-31
Vanguard Group Inc INSTITUTIONAL 757084 3.3% 2025-03-31
Blackrock Inc. INSTITUTIONAL 721998 3.15% 2025-03-31
Renaissance Technologies, LLC INSTITUTIONAL 578509 2.52% 2025-03-31
Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC INSTITUTIONAL 497268 2.17% 2025-03-31
American Century Companies Inc INSTITUTIONAL 466810 2.04% 2025-03-31
VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund MUTUALFUND 424908 1.85% 2025-03-31
American Century ETF Trust-Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF MUTUALFUND 400016 1.74% 2025-04-30
Victory Capital Management Inc. INSTITUTIONAL 348413 1.52% 2025-03-31
Millennium Management Llc INSTITUTIONAL 257564 1.12% 2025-03-31
iShares Trust-iShares Russell 2000 ETF MUTUALFUND 234344 1.02% 2025-04-30
Geode Capital Management, LLC INSTITUTIONAL 226037 0.99% 2025-03-31
Wellington Management Group, LLP INSTITUTIONAL 223815 0.98% 2025-03-31
DFA INVESTMENT DIMENSIONS GROUP INC-U.S. Targeted Value Portfolio MUTUALFUND 207408 0.9% 2025-01-31
Bridge Builder Trust-Bridge Builder Small/Mid Cap Growth Fund MUTUALFUND 187764 0.82% 2025-03-31
VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund MUTUALFUND 168652 0.74% 2025-03-31
DFA INVESTMENT DIMENSIONS GROUP INC-U.S. SMALL CAP VALUE PORTFOLIO MUTUALFUND 145931 0.64% 2025-01-31
OBERWEIS FUNDS-Oberweis Micro-Cap Fund MUTUALFUND 117900 0.51% 2025-03-31
DFA INVESTMENT DIMENSIONS GROUP INC-U.S. SMALL CAP PORTFOLIO MUTUALFUND 114074 0.5% 2025-01-31
DFA INVESTMENT DIMENSIONS GROUP INC-U.S. MICRO CAP PORTFOLIO MUTUALFUND 114017 0.5% 2025-01-31