RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc.
Biotechnology NasdaqGS
Trading Signals (RARE)
Overall Signal
SELL
Strong sellish signal based on multiple indicators.
Key Price Levels
Support Levels
- Strong Support $23.88
- Medium Support $25.03
- Weak Support $26.17
Resistance Levels
- Weak Resistance $28.47
- Medium Resistance $29.61
- Strong Resistance $30.76
Stop Loss Suggestions
- Conservative $29.73
- Moderate $29.04
- Aggressive $30.18
Analyst Ratings
Current Rating
Signal Indicator
| Indicator | Signal | Strength | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moving Averages | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Oscillators | SELL |
|
Short Term |
| Trend Indicators | SELL |
|
Medium Term |
| Volume Indicators | BUY |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Support/Resistance | NEUTRAL |
|
Short Term |
Stock Price Prediction Price Target Probabilities (RARE)
Quarterly Outlook :
2025-08-21
Bullish Scenario
from current 23.21%
Strong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (30.44) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (34.73) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-3.70) is below Signal line (-3.29) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.17, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-21
Base Scenario
from current -11.6%
Price is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (30.44) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (34.73) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-3.70) is below Signal line (-3.29) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.17, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-21
Bearish Scenario
from current -29.01%
Increased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (30.44) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (34.73) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-3.70) is below Signal line (-3.29) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.17, indicating the average weekly price range.
Annual Outlook
2025-08-21
Bullish Scenario
from current 46.41%
Long-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (30.44) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (34.73) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-3.70) is below Signal line (-3.29) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.17, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-21
Base Scenario
from current -23.21%
Steady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (30.44) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (34.73) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-3.70) is below Signal line (-3.29) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.17, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-08-21
Bearish Scenario
from current -58.02%
Long-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (30.44) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (34.73) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-3.70) is below Signal line (-3.29) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.17, indicating the average weekly price range.
Technical Analysis (RARE)
Trend Identification
EMA
Exponential Moving Average
Current price (27.32) is below both Short MA (30.18) and Long MA (34.26). This indicates strong bearish momentum. Short MA (30.18) is below Long MA (34.26), a bearish crossover ('Death Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates a downward trend. All MAs are in bearish order (Price < Short MA < Long MA < Very Long MA 35.34). This is a strong bearish alignment. Consider short positions. Use the MAs as dynamic resistance levels.
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
MACD line is above the Signal line (bullish crossover). This indicates upward momentum. Histogram (0.0400) is positive and expanding, confirming bullish momentum. Both MACD and Signal lines are below the zero line, reinforcing bearish momentum (bearish territory). A bullish crossover below the zero line can indicate a reversal from a prior downtrend. Consider this as a potential early buy signal.
ADX
Average Directional Index
ADX (27.49) indicates a strong trend is present. -DI (30.00) is above +DI (18.44), suggesting a bearish directional bias. This combination points to a strong downward trend. Consider taking short positions, as the strong downward trend is confirmed.
Momentum Measurement
RSI (2025-08-21)
Relative Strength Index
RSI (34.12) is in the bearish territory, but not yet oversold. This indicates downward momentum. Monitor for continuation or signs of strength.
OBV (2025-08-21)
On-Balance Volume
OBV (-18929823.00) is rising, indicating buying pressure and accumulation. Price is rising and OBV is rising. This is bullish confirmation, indicating buying pressure supports the price increase. Consider holding long positions or initiating new ones. Volume is supporting the trend.
Stochastic (2025-08-21)
Stochastic Oscillator
Stochastics (%K: 33.46, %D: 46.48) are in the neutral zone (between 20 and 80). A bearish crossover (%K below %D) is observed. This indicates downward momentum. Be cautious if it's already in the oversold region.
CCI (2025-08-21)
Commodity Channel Index
CCI (-29.42) is between -100 and 0. This indicates bearish momentum is present, but not yet extreme. A move below 0 from positive territory (bearish zero-line cross) can indicate a potential sell signal.
Volatility Measurement
ATR (2025-08-21)
Average True Range
Current ATR is 1.5800. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.
Bollinger Bands (2025-08-21)
Volatility Bands
Current price (27.32) is within the Bollinger Bands (20.01 - 40.35). This suggests the price is trading within its typical volatility range. Price is below the Middle Band (30.18), indicating short-term bearish bias. Bollinger Bands are wide. This indicates high volatility. Prices tend to revert to the mean after extended periods of high volatility.
Risk Management & Potential Reversals (RARE)
SAR (2025-08-21)
Parabolic Stop and Reverse
SAR points above price indicate bearish trend. Current SAR at 29.73 is 8.82% from price. Consider SAR as a potential take-profit level or to confirm a downtrend.
Stochastic (2025-08-21)
Neutral
Stochastic is in neutral territory (33.5). No clear overbought/oversold signal. Current crossover status: Bearish.
RSI (2025-08-21)
Reversal Perspective
Current RSI level is in neutral territory. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.
Bollinger Bands (2025-08-21)
Reversal Perspective
Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating high volatility and potential strong trend continuation.Price is in the lower half of the bands, suggesting a bearish bias.No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.
Holder List Top 20 (RARE)
| Holder Name | Holder Type | Shares | Pct. Held | Date Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Group Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 9996226 | 10.65% | 2025-03-31 |
| Blackrock Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 6158266 | 6.56% | 2025-03-31 |
| Sands Capital Management, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 4163561 | 4.43% | 2025-03-31 |
| Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 3218942 | 3.43% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 2782751 | 2.96% | 2025-03-31 |
| State Street Corporation | INSTITUTIONAL | 2618490 | 2.79% | 2025-03-31 |
| Wellington Management Group, LLP | INSTITUTIONAL | 2449498 | 2.61% | 2025-03-31 |
| ClearBridge Investments, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 2259705 | 2.41% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 2190232 | 2.33% | 2025-03-31 |
| Adage Capital Partners GP L.L.C. | INSTITUTIONAL | 2149000 | 2.29% | 2025-03-31 |
| Federated Hermes, Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 2055200 | 2.19% | 2025-03-31 |
| Suvretta Capital Management, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 2024500 | 2.16% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD EXPLORER FUND | MUTUALFUND | 2001985 | 2.13% | 2025-01-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 1413775 | 1.51% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 1230981 | 1.31% | 2025-03-31 |
| Federated Hermes Equity Funds-Federated Hermes Kaufmann Small Cap Fund | MUTUALFUND | 1091000 | 1.16% | 2025-01-31 |
| SPDR SERIES TRUST-SPDR(R) S&P(R) Biotech ETF | MUTUALFUND | 1061627 | 1.13% | 2025-04-30 |
| Federated Hermes Equity Funds-Federated Hermes Kaufmann Fund | MUTUALFUND | 932500 | 0.99% | 2025-01-31 |
| T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund, Inc. | MUTUALFUND | 892486 | 0.95% | 2025-03-31 |
| ACAP Strategic Fund | MUTUALFUND | 826698 | 0.88% | 2025-03-31 |