RAREUltragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. NasdaqGS

$37.35 +0.69 (1.85%)

update: 2025-06-21

1D 5D 1M

Trading Signals

Overall Signal

BUY

Strong buyish signal based on multiple indicators.

Confidence: 71%

Updated: 2025-06-21

Key Price Levels

Support Levels

Strong Support $32.75
Medium Support $34.28
Weak Support $35.82

Resistance Levels

Weak Resistance $38.88
Medium Resistance $40.42
Strong Resistance $41.95

Stop Loss Suggestions

Conservative $36.12
Moderate $35.05
Aggressive $33.52

Signal Breakdown

Indicator	Signal	Timeframe
Moving Averages	NEUTRAL	Short & Medium Term
Oscillators	BUY	Short Term
Trend Indicators	BUY	Short & Medium Term
Volume Indicators	BUY	Short & Medium Term
Support/Resistance	NEUTRAL	Short Term

Stock Price Prediction

Price Target Probabilities

Quarterly Outlook

Bullish Scenario

9.3% Probability

$41.53

22.04% from current price

Strong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (30.81) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (37.69) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-2.86) is below Signal line (-2.78) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.75, indicating the average weekly price range.

Base Scenario

44.19% Probability

$30.28

-11.02% from current price

Price is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (30.81) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (37.69) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-2.86) is below Signal line (-2.78) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.75, indicating the average weekly price range.

Bearish Scenario

46.51% Probability

$24.65

-27.55% from current price

Increased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (30.81) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (37.69) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-2.86) is below Signal line (-2.78) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.75, indicating the average weekly price range.

Annual Outlook

Bullish Scenario

9.3% Probability

$49.03

44.08% from current price

Long-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (30.81) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (37.69) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-2.86) is below Signal line (-2.78) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.75, indicating the average weekly price range.

Base Scenario

44.19% Probability

$26.53

-22.04% from current price

Steady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (30.81) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (37.69) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-2.86) is below Signal line (-2.78) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.75, indicating the average weekly price range.

Bearish Scenario

46.51% Probability

$15.28

-55.1% from current price

Long-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (30.81) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (37.69) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-2.86) is below Signal line (-2.78) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 3.75, indicating the average weekly price range.

Technical Analysis

Trend Identification

EMA

Exponential Moving Average

NEUTRAL

EMA(20) 36.39

EMA(50) 36.1

EMA(200) 38.39

Current price (37.35) is above both Short MA (36.39) and Long MA (36.10). This indicates strong bullish momentum. Short MA (36.39) is above Long MA (36.10), a bullish crossover ('Golden Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates an upward trend. MAs (36.39, 36.10, 38.39) show mixed alignment, suggesting market indecision or range-bound activity. Consider long positions. Use the MAs as dynamic support levels.

MACD

Moving Average Convergence Divergence

BUY

MACD Line 0.38

Signal Line 0.28

Histogram 0.1

MACD line is above the Signal line (bullish crossover). This indicates upward momentum. Histogram (0.1000) is positive and expanding, confirming bullish momentum. Both MACD and Signal lines are above the zero line, reinforcing bullish momentum (bullish territory). This is a strong buy signal. Consider long positions.

ADX

Average Directional Index

NEUTRAL

ADX 13.82

+DI 20.55

-DI 16.18

ADX (13.82) indicates a weak or non-existent trend (ranging market). +DI (20.55) is above -DI (16.18), suggesting a bullish directional bias. Avoid trend-following strategies. Consider range-bound or reversal strategies, or wait for a clearer trend to develop.

Momentum Measurement

RSI

Relative Strength Index

BUY

Current RSI 53.41

Oversold Neutral Overbought

RSI (53.41) is in the bullish territory, but not yet overbought. This indicates upward momentum. Monitor for continuation or signs of weakness.

Stochastic

Stochastic Oscillator

SELL

%K Line 20.12

%D Line 28.11

Stochastics (%K: 20.12, %D: 28.11) are in the neutral zone (between 20 and 80). A bearish crossover (%K below %D) is observed. This indicates downward momentum. Be cautious if it's already in the oversold region.

CCI

Commodity Channel Index

BUY

CCI(20) 3.86

CCI (3.86) is between 0 and +100. This indicates bullish momentum is present, but not yet extreme. A move above 0 from negative territory (bullish zero-line cross) can indicate a potential buy signal.

MACD

Momentum Perspective

BUY

Histogram Value 0.1

Volatility Measurement

ATR

Average True Range

1.54

ATR(14) 1.54

ATR % of Price ...%

Current ATR is 1.5400. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility Bands

BUY

Upper Band 38.9

Middle Band (SMA20) 36.39

Lower Band 33.88

Band Width 13%

Current price (37.35) is within the Bollinger Bands (33.88 - 38.90). This suggests the price is trading within its typical volatility range. Price is above the Middle Band (36.39), indicating short-term bullish bias. Bollinger Bands are wide. This indicates high volatility. Prices tend to revert to the mean after extended periods of high volatility.

Volume Analysis

OBV

On-Balance Volume

Rising

OBV Trend Upward

OBV vs Price Confirming

OBV (-2306257.00) is rising, indicating buying pressure and accumulation. Price is rising and OBV is rising. This is bullish confirmation, indicating buying pressure supports the price increase. Consider holding long positions or initiating new ones. Volume is supporting the trend.

Risk Management & Potential Reversals

SAR

Parabolic Stop and Reverse

SELL

Current SAR 39.96

Distance from Price 6.99%

SAR points above price indicate bearish trend. Current SAR at 39.96 is 6.99% from price. Consider SAR as a potential take-profit level or to confirm a downtrend.

RSI

Reversal Perspective

No Divergence

RSI Divergence None

Overbought/Oversold Neither

Current RSI level is in neutral territory. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.

Stochastic

Approaching Oversold

Approaching Overbought

Stochastic Position 20.1

Crossover Status Bearish

Stochastic is approaching oversold territory (20.1). No reversal signal yet. Monitor for potential bullish crossover (K above D) or entry into oversold (20-) followed by reversal. Current crossover status: Bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Reversal Perspective

Bullish Bias

Band Position Upper Half

Band Squeeze None

Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating high volatility and potential strong trend continuation.Price is in the upper half of the bands, suggesting a bullish bias.No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.