TCBS Texas Community Bancshares, Inc.
Banks - Regional NasdaqCM
SELL TCBS is showing a Bearish technical setup (SELL, 26.4% confidence) — RSI 49.4, MACD above its signal line. Key support $17.09, resistance $17.31.
Based on end-of-day data, updated after each U.S. market close. Not investment advice.
Trading Signals (TCBS)
How these signals performed on TCBS
Historical occurrences of each signal on this stock since January 2024, and the forward return that followed. Small samples are shown as-is—a handful of events is not a track record.
| Signal | Horizon | Times | Win rate | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI overbought reversal | 5d | 12 | 66.7% | +0.75% |
| 10d | 12 | 58.3% | +1.35% | |
| 20d | 12 | 41.7% | -0.36% | |
| MACD golden cross | 5d | 23 | 43.5% | 0.00% |
| 10d | 23 | 43.5% | 0.00% | |
| 20d | 22 | 68.2% | +1.84% | |
| MACD death cross | 5d | 23 | 69.6% | +0.77% |
| 10d | 23 | 60.9% | +0.46% | |
| 20d | 23 | 65.2% | +0.54% | |
| MA20/MA60 golden cross | 5d | 6 | 66.7% | +1.02% |
| 10d | 6 | 83.3% | +0.48% | |
| 20d | 6 | 50.0% | +0.25% | |
| MA20/MA60 death cross | 5d | 6 | 66.7% | +1.08% |
| 10d | 6 | 50.0% | -0.81% | |
| 20d | 6 | 50.0% | +0.93% |
Sample period from 2024-01-01 to the latest close. Returns are gross of transaction costs and do not account for liquidity. A small number of occurrences is not statistically meaningful. Full method and market-wide results: backtest.php. Not investment advice.
Overall Signal
SELL
Strong sellish signal based on multiple indicators.
Key Price Levels
Support Levels
- Strong Support $16.87
- Medium Support $16.98
- Weak Support $17.09
Resistance Levels
- Weak Resistance $17.31
- Medium Resistance $17.42
- Strong Resistance $17.53
Stop Loss Suggestions
- Conservative $17.29
- Moderate $17.37
- Aggressive $17.48
Signal Indicator
| Indicator | Signal | Strength | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moving Averages | NEUTRAL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Oscillators | SELL |
|
Short Term |
| Trend Indicators | BUY |
|
Medium Term |
| Volume Indicators | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Support/Resistance | NEUTRAL |
|
Short Term |
Price Outlook Price Target Probabilities (TCBS)
Quarterly Outlook :
2026-11-04
Bullish Scenario
from current 2.81%
Strong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (8.90) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (45.11) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.07) is below Signal line (-0.03) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.24, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-04
Base Scenario
from current -0.84%
Price is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (8.90) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (45.11) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.07) is below Signal line (-0.03) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.24, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-04
Bearish Scenario
from current -3.51%
Increased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (8.90) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (45.11) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.07) is below Signal line (-0.03) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.24, indicating the average weekly price range.
Annual Outlook
2026-11-04
Bullish Scenario
from current 5.61%
Long-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (8.90) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (45.11) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.07) is below Signal line (-0.03) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.24, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-04
Base Scenario
from current -1.68%
Steady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (8.90) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (45.11) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.07) is below Signal line (-0.03) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.24, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-04
Bearish Scenario
from current -7.02%
Long-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (8.90) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (45.11) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.07) is below Signal line (-0.03) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 0.24, indicating the average weekly price range.
Technical Analysis (TCBS)
Trend Identification
EMA
Exponential Moving Average
Current price (17.20) is between Short MA (17.11) and Long MA (17.35), or near one of them. This suggests consolidation or mixed signals. Short MA (17.11) is below Long MA (17.35), a bearish crossover ('Death Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates a downward trend. MAs (17.11, 17.35, 17.29) show mixed alignment, suggesting market indecision or range-bound activity. Market is in a choppy or sideways phase. Wait for a clearer trend to emerge before taking directional trades.
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
MACD line is above the Signal line (bullish crossover). This indicates upward momentum. Histogram (0.0300) is positive and expanding, confirming bullish momentum. Both MACD and Signal lines are below the zero line, reinforcing bearish momentum (bearish territory). A bullish crossover below the zero line can indicate a reversal from a prior downtrend. Consider this as a potential early buy signal.
ADX
Average Directional Index
ADX (28.32) indicates a strong trend is present. +DI (36.02) is above -DI (23.52), suggesting a bullish directional bias. This combination points to a strong upward trend. Consider taking long positions, as the strong upward trend is confirmed.
Momentum Measurement
RSI (2026-11-04)
Relative Strength Index
RSI (49.41) is in the bearish territory, but not yet oversold. This indicates downward momentum. Monitor for continuation or signs of strength.
OBV (2026-11-04)
On-Balance Volume
OBV (55707.00) is falling, indicating selling pressure and distribution. Price is falling and OBV is falling. This is bearish confirmation, indicating selling pressure supports the price decrease. Consider holding short positions or initiating new ones. Volume is supporting the trend.
Stochastic (2026-11-04)
Stochastic Oscillator
Stochastics (%K: 82.95, %D: 84.84) are in the overbought zone (above 80). This suggests the asset may be losing upward momentum. No clear bullish or bearish crossover signal currently. The lines are close or moving sideways. This is a strong sell signal, indicating potential downside.
CCI (2026-11-04)
Commodity Channel Index
CCI (30.65) is between 0 and +100. This indicates bullish momentum is present, but not yet extreme. A move above 0 from negative territory (bullish zero-line cross) can indicate a potential buy signal.
Volatility Measurement
ATR (2026-11-04)
Average True Range
Current ATR is 0.1400. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.
Bollinger Bands (2026-11-04)
Volatility Bands
Current price (17.20) is within the Bollinger Bands (16.89 - 17.34). This suggests the price is trading within its typical volatility range. Price is above the Middle Band (17.11), indicating short-term bullish bias.
Risk Management & Potential Reversals (TCBS)
SAR (2026-11-04)
Parabolic Stop and Reverse
SAR points below price indicate bullish trend. Current SAR at 16.97 is 1.34% from price. Consider SAR as a potential stop-loss level to protect gains in an uptrend.
Stochastic (2026-11-04)
Overbought
Stochastic is in overbought territory (83.0). Monitor for potential bearish crossover or movement below 80, which could signal a reversal.
RSI (2026-11-04)
Reversal Perspective
Current RSI level is in neutral territory. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.
Bollinger Bands (2026-11-04)
Reversal Perspective
Bands show normal bandwidth. Price is in the upper half of the bands, suggesting a bullish bias.No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.
Holder List Top 20 (TCBS)
| Holder Name | Holder Type | Shares | Pct. Held | Date Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alliancebernstein L.P. | INSTITUTIONAL | 147583 | 4.82% | 2025-03-31 |
| Oppenheimer & Close, Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 54485 | 1.78% | 2025-03-31 |
| Vanguard Group Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 53138 | 1.74% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 31736 | 1.04% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 20042 | 0.65% | 2025-03-31 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 15510 | 0.51% | 2025-03-31 |
| Northern Trust Corporation | INSTITUTIONAL | 11806 | 0.39% | 2025-03-31 |
| Fidelity Concord Street Trust-Fidelity Extended Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 10948 | 0.36% | 2025-04-30 |
| Blackrock Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 5633 | 0.18% | 2025-03-31 |
| iShares Trust-iShares Micro-Cap ETF | MUTUALFUND | 4981 | 0.16% | 2025-04-30 |
| Fidelity Concord Street Trust-Fidelity Series Total Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 1221 | 0.04% | 2025-04-30 |
| Fidelity Concord Street Trust-Fidelity Total Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 641 | 0.02% | 2025-04-30 |
| EQ Advisors Trust-1290 VT Micro Cap Portfolio | MUTUALFUND | 436 | 0.01% | 2025-03-31 |
| UBS Group AG | INSTITUTIONAL | 282 | 0.01% | 2025-03-31 |
| Tower Research Capital LLC (TRC) | INSTITUTIONAL | 240 | 0.01% | 2025-03-31 |
| SBI Securities Co., Ltd. | INSTITUTIONAL | 20 | 0% | 2025-03-31 |
| Bank of America Corporation | INSTITUTIONAL | 18 | 0% | 2025-03-31 |