TOL Toll Brothers, Inc.
Residential Construction NYSE
Trading Signals (TOL)
Overall Signal
BUY
Strong buyish signal based on multiple indicators.
Key Price Levels
Support Levels
- Strong Support $109.83
- Medium Support $113.85
- Weak Support $117.88
Resistance Levels
- Weak Resistance $125.94
- Medium Resistance $129.97
- Strong Resistance $133.99
Stop Loss Suggestions
- Conservative $117.56
- Moderate $115.87
- Aggressive $111.84
Analyst Ratings
Current Rating
Signal Indicator
| Indicator | Signal | Strength | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moving Averages | BUY |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Oscillators | BUY |
|
Short Term |
| Trend Indicators | BUY |
|
Medium Term |
| Volume Indicators | BUY |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Support/Resistance | NEUTRAL |
|
Short Term |
Stock Price Prediction Price Target Probabilities (TOL)
Quarterly Outlook :
2025-09-14
Bullish Scenario
from current 13.68%
Strong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (21.01) indicates a developing or moderate trend. +DI > -DI suggests bullish directional bias. RSI (56.18) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (1.55) is above Signal line (-0.17) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Both lines are above zero, reinforcing bullish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 6.67, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-09-14
Base Scenario
from current 5.47%
Price is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (21.01) indicates a developing or moderate trend. +DI > -DI suggests bullish directional bias. RSI (56.18) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (1.55) is above Signal line (-0.17) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Both lines are above zero, reinforcing bullish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 6.67, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-09-14
Bearish Scenario
from current -10.94%
Increased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (21.01) indicates a developing or moderate trend. +DI > -DI suggests bullish directional bias. RSI (56.18) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (1.55) is above Signal line (-0.17) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Both lines are above zero, reinforcing bullish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 6.67, indicating the average weekly price range.
Annual Outlook
2025-09-14
Bullish Scenario
from current 27.36%
Long-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (21.01) indicates a developing or moderate trend. +DI > -DI suggests bullish directional bias. RSI (56.18) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (1.55) is above Signal line (-0.17) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Both lines are above zero, reinforcing bullish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 6.67, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-09-14
Base Scenario
from current 10.94%
Steady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (21.01) indicates a developing or moderate trend. +DI > -DI suggests bullish directional bias. RSI (56.18) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (1.55) is above Signal line (-0.17) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Both lines are above zero, reinforcing bullish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 6.67, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-09-14
Bearish Scenario
from current -21.88%
Long-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (21.01) indicates a developing or moderate trend. +DI > -DI suggests bullish directional bias. RSI (56.18) is in bullish territory, indicating upward momentum. MACD line (1.55) is above Signal line (-0.17) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Both lines are above zero, reinforcing bullish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 6.67, indicating the average weekly price range.
Technical Analysis (TOL)
Trend Identification
EMA
Exponential Moving Average
Current price (121.91) is above both Short MA (120.20) and Long MA (112.32). This indicates strong bullish momentum. Short MA (120.20) is above Long MA (112.32), a bullish crossover ('Golden Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates an upward trend. All MAs are in bullish order (Price > Short MA > Long MA > Very Long MA 107.97). This is a strong bullish alignment. Consider long positions. Use the MAs as dynamic support levels.
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
MACD line is below the Signal line (bearish crossover). This indicates downward momentum. Histogram (-0.4700) is negative and expanding, confirming bearish momentum. Both MACD and Signal lines are above the zero line, reinforcing bullish momentum (bullish territory). A bearish crossover above the zero line can indicate a reversal from a prior uptrend. Consider this as a potential early sell signal.
ADX
Average Directional Index
ADX (22.39) indicates a developing or weakening trend. +DI (29.36) is above -DI (23.66), suggesting a bullish directional bias. Be cautious with current positions. Monitor for trend continuation or reversal signals.
Momentum Measurement
RSI (2025-09-14)
Relative Strength Index
RSI (56.12) is in the bullish territory, but not yet overbought. This indicates upward momentum. Monitor for continuation or signs of weakness.
OBV (2025-09-14)
On-Balance Volume
OBV (3033756.00) is rising, indicating buying pressure and accumulation. Price is rising and OBV is rising. This is bullish confirmation, indicating buying pressure supports the price increase. Consider holding long positions or initiating new ones. Volume is supporting the trend.
Stochastic (2025-09-14)
Stochastic Oscillator
Stochastics (%K: 29.52, %D: 21.47) are in the neutral zone (between 20 and 80). A bullish crossover (%K above %D) is observed, potentially signaling an upward trend reversal or continuation. Stronger signal if this occurs below 50.
CCI (2025-09-14)
Commodity Channel Index
CCI (3.29) is between 0 and +100. This indicates bullish momentum is present, but not yet extreme. A move above 0 from negative territory (bullish zero-line cross) can indicate a potential buy signal.
Volatility Measurement
ATR (2025-09-14)
Average True Range
Current ATR is 3.7000. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.
Bollinger Bands (2025-09-14)
Volatility Bands
Current price (121.91) is within the Bollinger Bands (113.28 - 127.11). This suggests the price is trading within its typical volatility range. Price is above the Middle Band (120.20), indicating short-term bullish bias. Bollinger Bands are wide. This indicates high volatility. Prices tend to revert to the mean after extended periods of high volatility.
Risk Management & Potential Reversals (TOL)
SAR (2025-09-14)
Parabolic Stop and Reverse
SAR points below price indicate bullish trend. Current SAR at 117.56 is 3.57% from price. Consider SAR as a potential stop-loss level to protect gains in an uptrend.
Stochastic (2025-09-14)
Approaching Oversold
Stochastic is approaching oversold territory (29.5). No reversal signal yet. Monitor for potential bullish crossover (K above D) or entry into oversold (20-) followed by reversal. Current crossover status: Bullish.
RSI (2025-09-14)
Reversal Perspective
Current RSI level is in neutral territory. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.
Bollinger Bands (2025-09-14)
Reversal Perspective
Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating high volatility and potential strong trend continuation.Price is in the upper half of the bands, suggesting a bullish bias.No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.
Holder List Top 20 (TOL)
| Holder Name | Holder Type | Shares | Pct. Held | Date Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 11623776 | 11.69% | 2025-03-31 |
| Vanguard Group Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 9965925 | 10.02% | 2025-03-31 |
| Greenhaven Associates, Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 5562582 | 5.59% | 2025-03-31 |
| Lone Pine Capital Llc | INSTITUTIONAL | 3800580 | 3.82% | 2025-03-31 |
| State Street Corporation | INSTITUTIONAL | 3602413 | 3.62% | 2025-03-31 |
| Capital World Investors | INSTITUTIONAL | 3250488 | 3.27% | 2025-03-31 |
| iShares Trust-iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF | MUTUALFUND | 3234189 | 3.25% | 2025-04-30 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 3148994 | 3.17% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 2492642 | 2.51% | 2025-03-31 |
| FMR, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 2452182 | 2.47% | 2025-03-31 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 2288257 | 2.3% | 2025-03-31 |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | INSTITUTIONAL | 2159289 | 2.17% | 2025-03-31 |
| Massachusetts Financial Services Co. | INSTITUTIONAL | 1933583 | 1.94% | 2025-03-31 |
| SMALLCAP WORLD FUND INC | MUTUALFUND | 1927000 | 1.94% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 1615303 | 1.62% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 1533066 | 1.54% | 2025-03-31 |
| MFS SERIES TRUST XI-MFS Mid Cap Value Fund | MUTUALFUND | 1325811 | 1.33% | 2025-03-31 |
| GROWTH FUND OF AMERICA | MUTUALFUND | 1297026 | 1.3% | 2025-03-31 |
| iShares Trust-iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF | MUTUALFUND | 1032574 | 1.04% | 2025-04-30 |
| SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF TRUST | MUTUALFUND | 788829 | 0.79% | 2025-04-30 |