ADVM Adverum Biotechnologies, Inc.
Biotechnology NasdaqCM
SELL ADVM is showing a Bearish technical setup (SELL, 71% confidence) — RSI 42.5, MACD below its signal line. (Price levels withheld — underlying price history is being refreshed.)
Based on end-of-day data, updated after each U.S. market close. Not investment advice.
Trading Signals (ADVM)
How these signals performed on ADVM
Historical occurrences of each signal on this stock since January 2024, and the forward return that followed. Small samples are shown as-is—a handful of events is not a track record.
| Signal | Horizon | Times | Win rate | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI oversold recovery | 5d | 6 | 50.0% | +2.15% |
| 10d | 6 | 33.3% | -4.26% | |
| 20d | 6 | 16.7% | -11.50% | |
| RSI overbought reversal | 5d | 5 | 0.0% | -10.36% |
| 10d | 5 | 20.0% | -12.49% | |
| 20d | 5 | 20.0% | -12.55% | |
| MACD golden cross | 5d | 12 | 75.0% | +4.18% |
| 10d | 12 | 58.3% | +3.79% | |
| 20d | 12 | 75.0% | +5.65% | |
| MACD death cross | 5d | 12 | 75.0% | +5.22% |
| 10d | 12 | 50.0% | +0.96% | |
| 20d | 12 | 75.0% | +15.91% | |
| MA20/MA60 golden cross | 5d | 3 | 33.3% | -5.28% |
| 10d | 3 | 33.3% | -15.47% | |
| 20d | 3 | 66.7% | +4.58% |
Sample period from 2024-01-01 to the latest close. Returns are gross of transaction costs and do not account for liquidity. A small number of occurrences is not statistically meaningful. Full method and market-wide results: backtest.php. Not investment advice.
Overall Signal
SELL
Strong sellish signal based on multiple indicators.
Key Price Levels
Support Levels
- Strong Support $1.74
- Medium Support $1.96
- Weak Support $2.17
Resistance Levels
- Weak Resistance $2.61
- Medium Resistance $2.82
- Strong Resistance $3.04
Stop Loss Suggestions
- Conservative $2.91
- Moderate $2.71
- Aggressive $2.93
Analyst Ratings
Current Rating
Signal Indicator
| Indicator | Signal | Strength | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moving Averages | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Oscillators | SELL |
|
Short Term |
| Trend Indicators | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Volume Indicators | NEUTRAL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Support/Resistance | NEUTRAL |
|
Short Term |
Price Outlook Price Target Probabilities (ADVM)
Quarterly Outlook :
2026-11-04
Bullish Scenario
from current 45.19%
Strong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (13.68) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (36.91) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.53) is above Signal line (-0.66) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.54, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-04
Base Scenario
from current 5.65%
Price is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (13.68) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (36.91) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.53) is above Signal line (-0.66) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.54, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-04
Bearish Scenario
from current -45.19%
Increased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (13.68) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (36.91) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.53) is above Signal line (-0.66) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.54, indicating the average weekly price range.
Annual Outlook
2026-11-04
Bullish Scenario
from current 90.38%
Long-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (13.68) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (36.91) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.53) is above Signal line (-0.66) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.54, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-04
Base Scenario
from current 11.3%
Steady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (13.68) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (36.91) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.53) is above Signal line (-0.66) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.54, indicating the average weekly price range.
2026-11-04
Bearish Scenario
from current -90.38%
Long-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (13.68) indicates a weak or ranging trend. Market is likely in a consolidation or range-bound phase. RSI (36.91) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-0.53) is above Signal line (-0.66) (bullish crossover), confirming upward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 0.54, indicating the average weekly price range.
Technical Analysis (ADVM)
Trend Identification
EMA
Exponential Moving Average
Current price (2.39) is below both Short MA (2.59) and Long MA (2.50). This indicates strong bearish momentum. Short MA (2.59) is above Long MA (2.50), a bullish crossover ('Golden Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates an upward trend. MAs (2.59, 2.50, 3.08) show mixed alignment, suggesting market indecision or range-bound activity.
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
MACD line is below the Signal line (bearish crossover). This indicates downward momentum. Histogram (-0.0300) is negative and expanding, confirming bearish momentum. MACD and Signal lines are near the zero line, indicating weak momentum or market consolidation.
ADX
Average Directional Index
ADX (15.68) indicates a weak or non-existent trend (ranging market). -DI (18.68) is above +DI (14.69), suggesting a bearish directional bias. Avoid trend-following strategies. Consider range-bound or reversal strategies, or wait for a clearer trend to develop.
Momentum Measurement
RSI (2026-11-04)
Relative Strength Index
RSI (42.53) is in the bearish territory, but not yet oversold. This indicates downward momentum. Monitor for continuation or signs of strength.
OBV (2026-11-04)
On-Balance Volume
OBV (-8328314.00) is flat, indicating indecision or a balanced market. Price is relatively stable. OBV movement will indicate hidden accumulation/distribution.
Stochastic (2026-11-04)
Stochastic Oscillator
Stochastics (%K: 7.07, %D: 14.83) are in the oversold zone (below 20). This suggests the asset may be losing downward momentum. A bearish crossover (%K below %D) is observed. This indicates downward momentum. Be cautious if it's already in the oversold region.
CCI (2026-11-04)
Commodity Channel Index
CCI (-202.92) is below -100. This suggests a strong downward momentum and an oversold condition. Consider buying or looking for long entries cautiously. Confirm with price action; if price is making lower lows, momentum is strong. Look for rallies to enter short.
Volatility Measurement
ATR (2026-11-04)
Average True Range
Current ATR is 0.2200. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.
Bollinger Bands (2026-11-04)
Volatility Bands
Current price (2.39) is within the Bollinger Bands (2.25 - 2.93). This suggests the price is trading within its typical volatility range. Price is below the Middle Band (2.59), indicating short-term bearish bias. Bollinger Bands are wide. This indicates high volatility. Prices tend to revert to the mean after extended periods of high volatility.
Risk Management & Potential Reversals (ADVM)
SAR (2026-11-04)
Parabolic Stop and Reverse
SAR points above price indicate bearish trend. Current SAR at 2.91 is 21.76% from price. Consider SAR as a potential take-profit level or to confirm a downtrend.
Stochastic (2026-11-04)
Oversold
Stochastic is in oversold territory (7.1). Monitor for potential bullish crossover or movement above 20, which could signal a reversal. Current crossover status: Bearish.
RSI (2026-11-04)
Reversal Perspective
Current RSI level is in neutral territory. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.
Bollinger Bands (2026-11-04)
Reversal Perspective
Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating high volatility and potential strong trend continuation.Price is in the lower half of the bands, suggesting a bearish bias.No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.
Holder List Top 20 (ADVM)
| Holder Name | Holder Type | Shares | Pct. Held | Date Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BML Capital Management, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 2742317 | 13.13% | 2025-03-31 |
| TCG Crossover Management, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 1796482 | 8.6% | 2025-03-31 |
| Franklin Resources, Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 1760056 | 8.43% | 2025-03-31 |
| Principia Wealth Advisory, Llc | INSTITUTIONAL | 1696815 | 8.12% | 2025-03-31 |
| Blackrock Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 1426855 | 6.83% | 2025-03-31 |
| Frazier Life Sciences Management, L.P. | INSTITUTIONAL | 1069244 | 5.12% | 2025-03-31 |
| Vanguard Group Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 1029326 | 4.93% | 2025-03-31 |
| Franklin Strategic Series-FRANKLIN BIOTECHNOLOGY DISCOVERY FUND | MUTUALFUND | 624737 | 2.99% | 2025-01-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 586245 | 2.81% | 2025-03-31 |
| 5AM Venture Management, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 541666 | 2.59% | 2025-03-31 |
| iShares Trust-iShares Russell 2000 ETF | MUTUALFUND | 517031 | 2.47% | 2025-04-30 |
| Versant Venture Management, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 506821 | 2.43% | 2025-03-31 |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 460830 | 2.21% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 285796 | 1.37% | 2025-03-31 |
| Fidelity Salem Street Trust-Fidelity Small Cap Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 207142 | 0.99% | 2025-02-28 |
| iShares Trust-iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF | MUTUALFUND | 188519 | 0.9% | 2025-04-30 |
| VANGUARD SCOTTSDALE FUNDS-Vanguard Russell 2000 Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 94908 | 0.45% | 2025-02-28 |
| Fidelity Concord Street Trust-Fidelity Extended Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 88889 | 0.43% | 2025-04-30 |
| SCHWAB CAPITAL TRUST-Schwab Small-Cap Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 49021 | 0.23% | 2025-01-31 |
| DFA INVESTMENT DIMENSIONS GROUP INC-U.S. SMALL CAP PORTFOLIO | MUTUALFUND | 48596 | 0.23% | 2025-01-31 |