AVB AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
REIT - Residential NYSE
Trading Signals (AVB)
Overall Signal
SELL
Strong sellish signal based on multiple indicators.
Key Price Levels
Support Levels
- Strong Support $169.51
- Medium Support $174.48
- Weak Support $179.46
Resistance Levels
- Weak Resistance $189.42
- Medium Resistance $194.4
- Strong Resistance $199.37
Stop Loss Suggestions
- Conservative $203.23
- Moderate $191.91
- Aggressive $196.89
Analyst Ratings
Current Rating
Signal Indicator
| Indicator | Signal | Strength | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moving Averages | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Oscillators | BUY |
|
Short Term |
| Trend Indicators | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Volume Indicators | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Support/Resistance | NEUTRAL |
|
Short Term |
Stock Price Prediction Price Target Probabilities (AVB)
Quarterly Outlook :
2025-09-04
Bullish Scenario
from current 8.34%
Strong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (26.73) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (33.08) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-4.80) is below Signal line (-3.19) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 7.69, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-09-04
Base Scenario
from current -4.17%
Price is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (26.73) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (33.08) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-4.80) is below Signal line (-3.19) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 7.69, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-09-04
Bearish Scenario
from current -10.42%
Increased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (26.73) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (33.08) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-4.80) is below Signal line (-3.19) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 7.69, indicating the average weekly price range.
Annual Outlook
2025-09-04
Bullish Scenario
from current 16.68%
Long-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (26.73) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (33.08) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-4.80) is below Signal line (-3.19) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 7.69, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-09-04
Base Scenario
from current -8.34%
Steady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (26.73) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (33.08) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-4.80) is below Signal line (-3.19) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 7.69, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-09-04
Bearish Scenario
from current -20.85%
Long-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (26.73) indicates a strong trend. -DI > +DI suggests strong bearish directional bias. RSI (33.08) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (-4.80) is below Signal line (-3.19) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Both lines are below zero, reinforcing bearish trend. Current Weekly ATR is 7.69, indicating the average weekly price range.
Technical Analysis (AVB)
Trend Identification
EMA
Exponential Moving Average
Current price (184.44) is below both Short MA (199.91) and Long MA (203.30). This indicates strong bearish momentum. Short MA (199.91) is below Long MA (203.30), a bearish crossover ('Death Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates a downward trend. All MAs are in bearish order (Price < Short MA < Long MA < Very Long MA 204.61). This is a strong bearish alignment. Consider short positions. Use the MAs as dynamic resistance levels.
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
MACD line is below the Signal line (bearish crossover). This indicates downward momentum. Histogram (-1.6600) is negative and expanding, confirming bearish momentum. Both MACD and Signal lines are below the zero line, reinforcing bearish momentum (bearish territory). This is a strong sell signal. Consider short positions.
ADX
Average Directional Index
ADX (19.92) indicates a weak or non-existent trend (ranging market). -DI (38.46) is above +DI (8.65), suggesting a bearish directional bias. Avoid trend-following strategies. Consider range-bound or reversal strategies, or wait for a clearer trend to develop.
Momentum Measurement
RSI (2025-09-04)
Relative Strength Index
RSI (27.09) is in the oversold zone. This suggests the asset may be due for a price bounce or a trend reversal upwards. Consider buying opportunities cautiously.
OBV (2025-09-04)
On-Balance Volume
OBV (-8945783.00) is falling, indicating selling pressure and distribution. Price is falling and OBV is falling. This is bearish confirmation, indicating selling pressure supports the price decrease. Consider holding short positions or initiating new ones. Volume is supporting the trend.
Stochastic (2025-09-04)
Stochastic Oscillator
Stochastics (%K: 12.74, %D: 26.36) are in the neutral zone (between 20 and 80). A bearish crossover (%K below %D) is observed. This indicates downward momentum. Be cautious if it's already in the oversold region.
CCI (2025-09-04)
Commodity Channel Index
CCI (-253.87) is below -100. This suggests a strong downward momentum and an oversold condition. Consider buying or looking for long entries cautiously. Confirm with price action; if price is making lower lows, momentum is strong. Look for rallies to enter short.
Volatility Measurement
ATR (2025-09-04)
Average True Range
Current ATR is 4.3800. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.
Bollinger Bands (2025-09-04)
Volatility Bands
Current price (184.44) is below the Lower Bollinger Band (189.60). This often indicates an oversold condition and a potential reversal upwards, or strong downward momentum ('walking the band'). Bollinger Bands are wide. This indicates high volatility. Prices tend to revert to the mean after extended periods of high volatility. Consider buying or covering short positions, but confirm with other indicators.
Risk Management & Potential Reversals (AVB)
SAR (2025-09-04)
Parabolic Stop and Reverse
SAR points above price indicate bearish trend. Current SAR at 203.23 is 10.19% from price. Consider SAR as a potential take-profit level or to confirm a downtrend.
Stochastic (2025-09-04)
Oversold
Stochastic is in oversold territory (12.7). Monitor for potential bullish crossover or movement above 20, which could signal a reversal. Current crossover status: Bearish.
RSI (2025-09-04)
Reversal Perspective
Current RSI level suggests oversold conditions, indicating potential for a bullish reversal. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.
Bollinger Bands (2025-09-04)
Reversal Perspective
Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating high volatility and potential strong trend continuation.Price is below the lower band, indicating oversold conditions or strong downward momentum. Expect a potential rebound or trend exhaustion.No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.
Holder List Top 20 (AVB)
| Holder Name | Holder Type | Shares | Pct. Held | Date Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Group Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 22672682 | 15.93% | 2025-03-31 |
| Blackrock Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 17110117 | 12.02% | 2025-03-31 |
| State Street Corporation | INSTITUTIONAL | 9262547 | 6.51% | 2025-03-31 |
| NORGES BANK | INSTITUTIONAL | 6814794 | 4.79% | 2024-12-31 |
| Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 5520036 | 3.88% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD SPECIALIZED FUNDS-Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 5488037 | 3.85% | 2025-01-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 4485718 | 3.15% | 2025-03-31 |
| Principal Financial Group, Inc. | INSTITUTIONAL | 4402068 | 3.09% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard 500 Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 3947790 | 2.77% | 2025-03-31 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 3818015 | 2.68% | 2025-03-31 |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | INSTITUTIONAL | 3814430 | 2.68% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 3063307 | 2.15% | 2025-03-31 |
| Northern Trust Corporation | INSTITUTIONAL | 2779484 | 1.95% | 2025-03-31 |
| Wellington Management Group, LLP | INSTITUTIONAL | 2594073 | 1.82% | 2025-03-31 |
| Fidelity Concord Street Trust-Fidelity 500 Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 1784582 | 1.25% | 2025-04-30 |
| SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST | MUTUALFUND | 1712120 | 1.2% | 2025-04-30 |
| iShares Trust-iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | MUTUALFUND | 1683689 | 1.18% | 2025-04-30 |
| Principal Funds, Inc-Real Estate Securities Fund | MUTUALFUND | 1518487 | 1.07% | 2025-01-31 |
| VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Value Index Fund | MUTUALFUND | 1246536 | 0.88% | 2025-03-31 |
| -Price (T.Rowe) Real Assets Trust I | MUTUALFUND | 1035252 | 0.73% | 2025-03-31 |