BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
Internet Retail NYSE
Trading Signals (BABA)
Overall Signal
SELL
Strong sellish signal based on multiple indicators.
Key Price Levels
Support Levels
- Strong Support $98.46
- Medium Support $101.19
- Weak Support $103.91
Resistance Levels
- Weak Resistance $109.37
- Medium Resistance $112.09
- Strong Resistance $114.82
Stop Loss Suggestions
- Conservative $114.39
- Moderate $110.73
- Aggressive $113.45
Analyst Ratings
Current Rating
Last Month
2 Months Ago
3 Months Ago
Signal Indicator
| Indicator | Signal | Strength | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moving Averages | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Oscillators | SELL |
|
Short Term |
| Trend Indicators | SELL |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Volume Indicators | BUY |
|
Short & Medium Term |
| Support/Resistance | NEUTRAL |
|
Short Term |
Stock Price Prediction Price Target Probabilities (BABA)
Quarterly Outlook :
2025-07-11
Bullish Scenario
from current 17.93%
Strong upward momentum and confirmed bullish trend, with potential for significant price appreciation. Indicators point to sustained buying pressure. ADX (20.33) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (45.32) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (1.49) is below Signal line (4.34) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 9.56, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-07-11
Base Scenario
from current -8.96%
Price is likely to continue its moderate trajectory, reflecting underlying market conditions and historical volatility. Indicators suggest a balanced outlook. ADX (20.33) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (45.32) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (1.49) is below Signal line (4.34) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 9.56, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-07-11
Bearish Scenario
from current -22.41%
Increased selling pressure and potential for a significant price correction or downtrend. Indicators suggest waning bullish momentum or strengthening bearish forces. ADX (20.33) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (45.32) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (1.49) is below Signal line (4.34) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 9.56, indicating the average weekly price range.
Annual Outlook
2025-07-11
Bullish Scenario
from current 35.86%
Long-term bullish trend with strong fundamental catalysts and sustained institutional buying. Expect significant capital appreciation over the year. ADX (20.33) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (45.32) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (1.49) is below Signal line (4.34) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 9.56, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-07-11
Base Scenario
from current -17.93%
Steady long-term growth consistent with market and industry averages. Price expected to follow a typical growth trajectory. ADX (20.33) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (45.32) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (1.49) is below Signal line (4.34) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 9.56, indicating the average weekly price range.
2025-07-11
Bearish Scenario
from current -44.82%
Long-term bearish trend with significant headwinds from economic factors, industry disruption, or company-specific issues. Expect notable price depreciation. ADX (20.33) indicates a developing or moderate trend. -DI > +DI suggests bearish directional bias. RSI (45.32) is in bearish territory, indicating downward momentum. MACD line (1.49) is below Signal line (4.34) (bearish crossover), confirming downward momentum. Current Weekly ATR is 9.56, indicating the average weekly price range.
Technical Analysis (BABA)
Trend Identification
EMA
Exponential Moving Average
Current price (106.64) is below both Short MA (112.57) and Long MA (117.80). This indicates strong bearish momentum. Short MA (112.57) is below Long MA (117.80), a bearish crossover ('Death Cross' if it's a significant period). This indicates a downward trend. All MAs are in bearish order (Price < Short MA < Long MA < Very Long MA 123.03). This is a strong bearish alignment. Consider short positions. Use the MAs as dynamic resistance levels.
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
MACD line is below the Signal line (bearish crossover). This indicates downward momentum. Histogram (-0.7100) is negative and expanding, confirming bearish momentum. Both MACD and Signal lines are below the zero line, reinforcing bearish momentum (bearish territory). This is a strong sell signal. Consider short positions.
ADX
Average Directional Index
ADX (16.31) indicates a weak or non-existent trend (ranging market). -DI (41.53) is above +DI (23.43), suggesting a bearish directional bias. Avoid trend-following strategies. Consider range-bound or reversal strategies, or wait for a clearer trend to develop.
Momentum Measurement
RSI (2025-07-11)
Relative Strength Index
RSI (37.50) is in the bearish territory, but not yet oversold. This indicates downward momentum. Monitor for continuation or signs of strength.
OBV (2025-07-11)
On-Balance Volume
OBV (437656046.00) is rising, indicating buying pressure and accumulation. Price is rising and OBV is rising. This is bullish confirmation, indicating buying pressure supports the price increase. Consider holding long positions or initiating new ones. Volume is supporting the trend.
Stochastic (2025-07-11)
Stochastic Oscillator
Stochastics (%K: 26.23, %D: 15.99) are in the neutral zone (between 20 and 80). A bullish crossover (%K above %D) is observed, potentially signaling an upward trend reversal or continuation. Stronger signal if this occurs below 50.
CCI (2025-07-11)
Commodity Channel Index
CCI (-110.47) is below -100. This suggests a strong downward momentum and an oversold condition. Consider buying or looking for long entries cautiously. Confirm with price action; if price is making lower lows, momentum is strong. Look for rallies to enter short.
Volatility Measurement
ATR (2025-07-11)
Average True Range
Current ATR is 3.0100. ATR indicates average volatility. Market conditions are relatively stable.
Bollinger Bands (2025-07-11)
Volatility Bands
Current price (106.64) is within the Bollinger Bands (104.62 - 120.53). This suggests the price is trading within its typical volatility range. Price is below the Middle Band (112.57), indicating short-term bearish bias. Bollinger Bands are wide. This indicates high volatility. Prices tend to revert to the mean after extended periods of high volatility.
Risk Management & Potential Reversals (BABA)
SAR (2025-07-11)
Parabolic Stop and Reverse
SAR points above price indicate bearish trend. Current SAR at 114.39 is 7.27% from price. Consider SAR as a potential take-profit level or to confirm a downtrend.
Stochastic (2025-07-11)
Approaching Oversold
Stochastic is approaching oversold territory (26.2). No reversal signal yet. Monitor for potential bullish crossover (K above D) or entry into oversold (20-) followed by reversal. Current crossover status: Bullish.
RSI (2025-07-11)
Reversal Perspective
Current RSI level is in neutral territory. No RSI divergence detected. Current RSI level doesn't suggest imminent reversal.
Bollinger Bands (2025-07-11)
Reversal Perspective
Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating high volatility and potential strong trend continuation.Price is in the lower half of the bands, suggesting a bearish bias.No indication of imminent volatility expansion or reversal.
Holder List Top 20 (BABA)
| Holder Name | Holder Type | Shares | Pct. Held | Date Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | INSTITUTIONAL | 22782955 | 0.95% | 2025-03-31 |
| Primecap Management Company | INSTITUTIONAL | 20623697 | 0.86% | 2025-03-31 |
| FMR, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 16770272 | 0.7% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD CHESTER FUNDS-Vanguard PRIMECAP Fund | MUTUALFUND | 11667917 | 0.49% | 2025-03-31 |
| Dodge & Cox Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 11319570 | 0.47% | 2025-03-31 |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 10306564 | 0.43% | 2025-03-31 |
| Morgan Stanley | INSTITUTIONAL | 10209362 | 0.43% | 2025-03-31 |
| Appaloosa LP | INSTITUTIONAL | 9230000 | 0.39% | 2025-03-31 |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 8757019 | 0.37% | 2025-03-31 |
| Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc | INSTITUTIONAL | 8595269 | 0.36% | 2025-03-31 |
| UBS AM, a distinct business unit of UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC | INSTITUTIONAL | 8557495 | 0.36% | 2025-03-31 |
| Dodge & Cox Funds-Dodge & Cox International Stock Fund | MUTUALFUND | 7754700 | 0.32% | 2025-03-31 |
| JPMorgan Trust II-JPMorgan Large Cap Growth Fund | MUTUALFUND | 7563539 | 0.32% | 2025-03-31 |
| VANGUARD HORIZON FUNDS-Vanguard Capital Opportunity Fund | MUTUALFUND | 3796500 | 0.16% | 2025-03-31 |
| Fidelity Advisor Series VIII-Fidelity Advisor Focused Emerging Markets | MUTUALFUND | 2415582 | 0.1% | 2025-04-30 |
| Fidelity Rutland Square TRT II-Strategic Advisers Fidelity Emerging Ma | MUTUALFUND | 1942954 | 0.08% | 2025-04-30 |
| Delaware Group Global & Intl Fd.s-Macquarie Emerging Markets Fd. | MUTUALFUND | 1940000 | 0.08% | 2025-02-28 |
| JANUS INVESTMENT FUND-Janus Henderson Forty Fund | MUTUALFUND | 1896147 | 0.08% | 2025-03-31 |
| Fidelity Investment Trust-Fidelity Emerging Markets Fund | MUTUALFUND | 1805500 | 0.08% | 2025-04-30 |
| -Price (T.Rowe) Emerging Markets Equity Trust | MUTUALFUND | 1746005 | 0.07% | 2025-03-31 |